In addition to being a net energy exporter in terms of oil and gas, Turkey is also on its way to becoming increasingly dependent on imports as the natural gas pipelines have started to reach more and more cities in the country, culminating in a 74 percent reliance on outside resources in electricity generation. Aside from renewable energy resources like hydro, wind and sun, the only real alternative left is to keep using coal to produce electricity in Turkey, albeit in a much better and cleaner sense.I believe we should invest in “clean coal technologies” (by the way I do not agree with Sierra Club environmentalists' argument that clean coal is a myth) to reduce the environmental hazards of coal-fired plants to an acceptable level. If we can do that, why should we not build new plants running on coal to make the best use of these reserves, which are abundantly available under ground in Turkey, to generate electricity?
With environmental impacts the utmost concern in mind, Turkey should develop or import commercially viable technologies to burn coal cleanly in order to generate much-needed electricity. According to analysts, Turkey needs as much as $10 billion worth of energy investments each year to stave off electricity shortages as early as 2010 as demand for power grew 3.5 percent last year from an annual average growth of about 8 percent since 2002. With the economic recovery going on and industrial capacity utilization rising, we should pursue a proactive policy.
A senior official from the Energy Ministry who shared some data with me last week presents a stark picture for the potential of coal in reducing Turkey's dependence on outside resources. Let's take the case of 2,800-megawatt (MW) Afşin-Elbistan coal-fired plant in southeastern Turkey where 4.5 billion tons of coal reserves are estimated to exist, corresponding to 40 percent of lignite reserves in the country. That means the area has the potential to generate 2 billion megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity in total. To generate that amount of electricity, one needs to burn 400 billion cubic meters of natural gas, which roughly comes at a price tag of TL 200 billion. In other words, we would be able to shave TL 200 billion ($137 billion) off our utility bill if we are able to successfully exploit the coal reserves in the Afşin-Elbistan plains alone.
If we extrapolate this projection to the whole country, we will have far greater savings in our national budget. According to Mining Exploration Institute (MTA) data, Turkey has 10.5 billion tons of coal reserves across the country. If we leave this huge coal reserve under the ground, we would be potentially throwing TL 460 billion ($315 billion) in savings away, blowing a hole wide open in our current account deficit.
I believe we could adopt a two-tier approach in compensating the electricity shortage. While we invest in renewables to increase their share in total electricity generation, we should also find a way to exploit coal reserves, employing the best technology available and also rehabilitating aging ones. Currently renewables only constitute 1 percent of established power capacity in the country, while coal-fired plants generate 24.1 percent of total electricity.
There is also another advantage of establishing coal plants. With residual heat generated in these plants employing cogeneration technology, you can provide heating to nearby residential areas at substantially low and very competitive prices. For example in Muğla's Yatağan, where a coal-fired plant exists, 16,500 houses are using this technology to heat their homes. It only costs an extra $5,000 per house, which will pay for itself in four or five years.
The Energy Ministry is already in talks with the Housing Development Administration of Turkey (TOKİ), the largest residential building developer in Turkey, to come up with a plan to heat newly built high-rise buildings with this residual heat system. In a statement addressed to TOKİ on June 15, of which I have a copy, the Energy Ministry proposed this cogeneration technology using residual heat in providing heating and cooling to half-a-million soon-to-be built flats.
That means we increase air quality around these residential complexes while decreasing the emission volume overall in the country and reducing the risk of damage to our environmental and international obligations, including Kyoto and EU directives.
So far that does not look very promising. Though the Energy Market Regulatory Agency (EPDK) has recently approved applications for some of the 46 large coal-fired power plants in the country, Turkish courts have blocked four plants so far from proceeding because they failed to provide environmental impact reports. The government must step in and sort out problems to fast-track building new plants in order to ensure the security of electricity in Turkey.
