According to Wikipedia, Shinseki is a retired four-star US Army general who is currently serving as the seventh US secretary of veterans affairs. Serving successfully and brilliantly in many posts, his final US Army assignment was as the 34th chief of staff of the army (1999-2003). During his tenure as army chief of staff, Shinseki initiated a plan to make the army more strategically deployable and mobile in urban terrain by creating Stryker Interim-Force Brigade Combat Teams. He also devised a long-term strategic plan for the Army, known as Future Combat Systems.Wikipedia goes on to state that Shinseki is a veteran of combat in Vietnam, Shinseki made the headlines when he publicly clashed with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the planning of the war in Iraq over how many troops the US would need to keep in Iraq for the post-war occupation of that country. As army chief of staff, Gen. Shinseki testified to the US Senate Armed Services Committee that “something in the order of several hundred thousand soldiers” would probably be required for post-war Iraq. This was an estimate far higher than the figure being put forward by Rumsfeld in his Iraq invasion plan, and it was rejected categorically and in strong language by both Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, who was another chief planner of the invasion and occupation.
After that clash with the civilian bosses of the Pentagon, Shinseki's influence in the Joint Chiefs of Staff waned. The end of his term as army chief of staff and his 38 years of military service came in June 2003, just a few weeks after President Bush proclaimed that “major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the Battle of Iraq, the US and our allies have prevailed.”
Well, the ensuing events and developments proved both President Bush and his advisers wrong. Although Saddam and his army was defeated quickly, another battle started with the emergence of a widespread insurgency, which the US military was unable to put down because of a lack of preparedness and insufficient troop strength.
When the insurgency in postwar Iraq grew and the US military found itself unable to control it with the existing force in late 2006, a new strategy, dubbed the surge, was adopted by the Bush administration. In this regard, Bush decided to increase the number of US combat troops in Baghdad and Anbar province to stop the worsening of the security situation, which was about to spin out of control, leading to civil war. Eventually he ordered the deployment of more than 20,000 soldiers into Iraq, with five additional brigades to Baghdad and also extended the tour of 4,000 Marines already in the Anbar province area. The five brigades were:
2nd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division deployed to Baghdad in January 2007
4th Brigade 1st Infantry Division deployed to Baghdad in February 2007
3rd Brigade 3rd Infantry Division deployed to Baghdad in March 2007
4th Brigade 2nd Infantry Division deployed to Diyala province in April 2007
2nd Brigade 3rd Infantry Division deployed to southern Baghdad in March 2007
Eventually the surge worked and proved to be successful in controlling the insurgency to manageable levels. That is why the US military decided to terminate its presence in urban areas last June and to pull out its entire troops at the end of 2011.
I have been reminded of Gen. Shinseki and his prudent estimate today because a similar situation has been evolving in Afghanistan as well. There the Taliban insurgency has also been growing and threatening to become uncontrollable if US troop strength is not increased quickly and in the right numbers.
This is the conclusion of the top US and NATO- International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who recommended to President Obama an increase of 40,000 troops as the minimum necessary to prevail against the Taliban insurgency and the al-Qaeda threat.
When deciding on Gen. McChystal's recommendation, President Obama should remember Iraq and Gen. Shinseki's thoughts.
