In other words, this might be the last chance for CDU leader Angela Merkel to deliver her promises on what the powerful middle class of Germany sees as long overdue. Delayed reforms on social security, education and finance will certainly lead to tough bargaining with the new coalition partner, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).“Merkel will have to change her style of government in the coming four years. She won't be able to remain as aloof as she did in the grand coalition,” wrote Der Spiegel.
“The new government faces massive challenges,” continued the paper, “the biggest one being how to reduce government debt, which has ballooned in the financial crisis. Bank bailout packages and economic stimulus programs have cost hundreds of billions of euros. Federal government debt is expected to rise by more than 300 billion euros by 2013, according to Finance Ministry estimates. Government debt is rising towards 2 trillion euros and will exceed 80 percent of gross domestic product in the years to come. That is why any tax cuts are likely to be largely cosmetic… There are three ways to do this -- spending cuts, higher taxes or a mixture of the two. Experience shows the third option is the most likely. The government will probably cut back subsidies and curb tax relief in a number of areas. It is almost certain to refrain from hiking value-added tax any further.”
This will set the scene for the real issues of the country.
But the focus in Turkey remains unchanged. Is there a justification for a growing concern over the future of accession talks? What will the change of partner mean for negotiations with Turkey?
Frank-Walter Steinmeier's clean, moral stance on keeping the negotiations on track, based on the criteria, was not efficient enough to persuade Merkel to give up the idea on “privileged partnership,” but kept it in limbo, at least helping keep hopes alive for the bloc within the European Union supportive of Turkey.
The equation might be forced in favor of Turkey with the entry of the FDP. So far, there has not been an authoritative voice from the party expressing credible sympathy for the “privileged partnership” model, and it is very likely to remain so. The FDP will pursue a “keeping the negotiations on track” policy with Guido Westerwelle. The minor partner will be a defender of an open-ended process, advocating a “step-by-step” path for Turkey.
But this may fall short of pushing Merkel to bury the idea altogether. What will be difficult for the FDP to manage is how it will judge the overall vote for itself: If there is enough reason to believe that voters solely gave the FDP power in order for Merkel to complete unfinished business on the home front, but also for her policies in enlargement, this might lead to yet another limbo -- that of keeping Turkey waiting at the door of unopened negotiation chapters.
“It's probable the new coalition will have a different tone than the previous one in regards to Turkey's EU accession. Yet, what matters -- and where the real risk lies -- is the extent to which this difference will bring the new coalition closer to Nicolas Sarkozy-style politics. We will be able to see that when the new coalition protocol is negotiated,” Sinan Ülgen, head of the İstanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), told Today's Zaman.
I agree with this assessment. The best the new German government could do, under the circumstances, is to stop talking about “privileged partnership” because it will have to be fairly passive in reviving negotiations. Meanwhile, the critical upcoming months will also tell us whether Ankara will be able to change gears in its reform drive. The more it does so, the more it will gain and have the final say on whether it wants to continue negotiations at all with an increasingly confused and selfish EU.
The FDP knows -- from its contacts in Turkey -- that patience is running out here due to the immoral acts of certain EU members, and once patience is gone, this will be a great loss for the future of the union.
