Over the years, its opponents have resorted to not only legal but also illegal methods to finish off the AK Party. Yet all attempts have proved unsuccessful. Most recently, the global economic crisis was expected to do away with the ruling party. It seems that economic crisis, too, failed to do the job.What is left is to wait and see the AK Party destroy itself by its own acts. Let me explain how.
A careful observer of Turkish politics would notice that for some time now the military has refrained from making an overtly political statement in objection to governmental policies that include the Kurdish initiative. This may be interpreted as a sign of deepening democracy and adjusting civil-military relations to democratic standards.
Yet knowing the worldview and self-perception of the military I do not think that the military would give up its competition with political elite for greater power.
The low profile and cooperative attitude of the military as demonstrated in the last National Security Council meeting, which called for the continuation of the “democratic openingm” may point to a new configuration of power in Ankara where the military is ready to accept a subservient position to the government.
Despite pressure by the opposition parties the generals' restraint on such a central issue is indeed surprising. One explanation is that the military may find it enough to “share” its views on the Kurdish initiative behind the close doors. But this is not the habit of Turkish military. Traditionally they make their position behind closed doors but also engage in public opinion offensives to corner the political leaders via the media.
Some optimists would argue that this is an indication that the military has withdrawn from a position of dictating its own views on governments.
I do not think so.
The military is allowing the government to take political risks. My view is that the military is silent on the new Kurdish initiative because they think that the AK Party government is committing suicide. The military's expectation is that the nationalist backlash provoked by the Kurdish initiative will destroy the AK Party's standing in the western and central parts of Turkey. The generals are silent because they think that the new Kurdish initiative will reduce the AK Party to a party of the Kurds.
They are mistaken.
The AK Party survived the Ergenekon conspiracies of 2003 and 2004, the military e-memorandum of April 2007, the presidential election, so-called “republican rallies” and the closure case. Then it was expected that economic crisis would ruin the ruling party in the March 2009 local elections, triggering the beginning of the end of the AK Party.
Now the security bureaucracy expects the AK Party to falter under the wreckage of its own Kurdish initiative.
The military is content to go along with such an indirect method of eliminating the AK Party since it is aware that it has lost its allies in the civilian sectors. An overwhelming majority of the people have demonstrated that they prefer a democratic regime over an authoritarian military one. The recent amendment in the criminal law that brings coup plotters under the mandate of civilian courts is also extremely important. One should also add the Ergenekon trial as an element of restraint. Further, Turkey's links with Western institutions and the global economy make it ever more difficult to be ruled under a direct military dictatorship or indirect military interferences in political affairs.
What remains is to wait and see the AK Party to destroy itself with its own policies like the Kurdish initiative.
They are mistaken. The AK Party will emerge even stronger either way: If the government manages to resolve the Kurdish question, disarm the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and stop the bloodshed it will be the undisputable political authority for both Kurds and Turks and even for regional and global powers. If on the other hand the government fails to resolve the question it will put the blame on the opposition parties that did not support the process and made it fail. As the Kurdish question is not a problem created by the AK Party, if it fails the AK Party can hardly be blamed. Instead all actors that do not support the “democratic opening,” be it the Democratic Society Party (DTP), PKK or the military, will to be blamed. So at the end of the process, either way Turkish politics will become less open to the military's political manipulations.
