The report begins with a clairvoyant message on the failure of Europeans to “treat Turkey fairly.” Ever since Turkey's European Union membership process gained momentum and started to look like a real possibility, the anti-Turkey camp in Europe started to look for ways to divert Turkey. The formally agreed upon negotiating framework signed in October 2005 had one clear goal for Turkey: full membership. But since then, some EU members championed by France and Germany began to talk about a “privileged” or “special” partnership for Turkey without making a convincing case for it. The French proposal to form a Union for the Mediterranean is suspected to have been instituted to divert Turkey from the EU. Furthermore, the attitudes and political statements of some EU officials and politicians have produced a negative atmosphere in Europe and Turkey.The result is not one, but two vicious circles. On the one hand, Europeans do not live up to their promises, act as if they never had a negotiating framework agreement signed with Turkey, pressure Turkey on the Cyprus issue without putting any political capital in it, use anti-Turkey propaganda in domestic issues and so on. This, in turn, pushes Turkey further away from the EU goal, causes it to slow down the reform process and spend its energy in other areas that are of vital interest to Turkey.
On the other hand, Turkish domestic politics chips in with its own dilemmas. Those who accuse the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) of undermining the secular foundations of the republic tacitly, if not openly, oppose the EU process and try to delay the implementation of social and political reforms. The reason is that the closer Turkey gets to the legal and political standards of the EU's acquis communautaire, the more insecure the secularist establishment feels vis-à-vis the new changes in Turkey and around the world. It looks like more democracy and more freedoms benefit every member of Turkish society, including Turks and Kurds, Sunnis and Alevis, Muslims and non-Muslims, businessmen and foreigners … except the defenders of the status quo.
The report also criticizes the ruling AK Party for losing the reformist spirit it had displayed in the first three years of rule. It calls on the Turkish government to quickly establish a “functioning ombudsman” to oversee the reform process, extend freedom of organization, equal rights in education for all religious communities and change the existing Political Parties Law to make the closure of political parties much more difficult. On the foreign policy front, the report praises the new efforts on the Kurdish issue, the process of normalization with Armenia and Turkey's support for the ongoing negotiations in Cyprus.
The Kurdish and Armenian issues are not formally tied to the EU negotiations, but solving them will certainly help Turkey's case in world public opinion and further weaken the arguments of Turkey-skeptics in Europe. The Cyprus issue, however, is officially part of Turkey's EU membership process. At least some members have made it a condition of membership. The report notes that time is running out for a solution in Cyprus because the two Cypriot leaders, Dimitris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat, if they fail to achieve any settlement before the end of October, will face mounting domestic pressure from their constituencies. The Turkish Cypriot leader, Talat, will face elections in April 2010 and a failed Cyprus process will not help him.
Finally, the report notes Turkey's strategic significance for the EU. The EU's ambition to be an effective soft power in the region is contingent upon winning Turkey as a strategic ally. European interests in the Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia are directly tied to Turkey, from energy and security to regional conflicts and immigration. Many Europeans acknowledge this but fall short of acting on it. Acting on it means nothing other than full EU membership for Turkey.
I believe the case for Turkey in Europe is clear, but it is up to the Europeans to make up their minds.
