Turkey has a share of the responsibility for this slowness. Even though important steps have been undertaken regarding democratization, the results are not imminent. Some reforms are still pending, the constitutional change is delayed. The EU is not occupying the Turkish public opinion's daily agenda and no tangible effort has been deployed to influence the European public's opinion in Turkey's favor. And of course, there is the Cyprus issue. The EU is responsible too; some members' unwillingness in particular should be noted. Countries such as France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria do their best to prevent Turkey's membership.Additionally, in Turkey there are people who ask why the country should undergo these painful reforms if it will never be accepted as a member. Turkey has to harmonize its market rules with the EU to ensure facilities for investments and public offers, it must raise its economic and financial standards and allow the EU market to function more easily, it has to reinforce its border surveillance and it must to make sure that Cyprus no longer constitutes a problem for Europe, but after all this, it will still not be authorized to sit at the EU table. It is a mystery that some people in Europe are convinced that Turkey will accept these conditions.
Turkey has been well-informed about what to do regarding its stability and democracy and the EU is not the only actor pushing Turkey towards democratization. In order to ensure the continuation of good relations with Iraq, Syria and Armenia, Turkey has to respect universal principles, which are not very different to the Copenhagen criteria. Barack Obama's administration has expressed quite clearly that it will not develop a close partnership with Turkey unless the latter restructures itself in accordance with these principles. So, the EU “anchor” has done all it can so far, now it is not just the process towards an EU bid that is important, but also the end goal. Probably Nicolas Sarkozy has noticed that and that's why he is now trying to clearly define what he intends to do with regards to Turkey, saying there is the need for a method which keeps Turkey out of the EU, but preserves it as a friend.
It is not Turkey that will decide about the modalities of such a relationship, so let Europe think about it alone. While the EU thinks, domestic pressure regarding the implementation of the Copenhagen criteria will increase and Turkey will keep advancing on this path. However, during this standby period, Turkey will not be tempted to help Europe with regards to a common foreign policy, security matters such as transboundary threats and illegal immigration or Cyprus. Besides, it is hard to predict exactly how this long process will affect (positively and negatively) the engaged parties. There are some people in Europe who believe that if Turkey accedes to the EU today, the EU's vaults will be emptied and millions of Turks will immigrate to Western Europe, disturbing everyone with their headscarves and moustaches. But who knows what Europe or Turkey will be like in 20 years? That is why the attitude of the “refusal front” is nothing less than making a strategic decision today about an unknown future. Sarkozy is not alone in this matter, there are many who hide behind him; but he is about to take a step that will affect global balances, diminishing Europe's influence in these equations.
