Professor Ahmet Davutoğlu, the Turkish foreign minister, was tight-lipped in going into details over a government plan on a roadmap concerning easing the Kurdish as well as PKK problem during his press conference in Ankara last Monday.
However, he hinted that some new steps would be taken in a fresh attempt to resolve Turkey's decades old Kurdish problem which may help to alleviate the separatist campaign as well improve the state's ill-defined policies on the issue.
Various news stories, supported by statements made by Turkish leaders in the past several months, have renewed the hopes of a breakthrough in solving this problem. President Abdullah Gül said in May that Turkey had an "historic opportunity" to solve the Kurdish problem.
The conflict, which started on Aug. 15, 1984, has already taken more than 40,000 lives while misery and disappointment define the mood in the war-stricken, Kurdish-dominated southeastern region.
In addition to positive remarks made by decision makers over a solution to the problem, the regional climate appears to be favoring a deal. Turkey has left behind its uncompromising stance and restored its ties with the Iraqi Kurdish regional authority in northern Iraq though it still has not recognized the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) set up as envisaged under the Iraqi Constitution.
In addition, Turkey has considerably improved its ties with the central government in Baghdad over the years culminating in the setting up of a High Level Strategic Cooperation Council mechanism last year at prime ministerial level, most likely to hold its first meeting in October this year.
As an important sign of change in Turkish threat perceptions towards Northern Iraq in particular, Davutoğlu said during a TV interview last week that Ankara does perceive PKK bases at camps in the region as a threat but not northern Iraq, i.e., the Kurds.
On the contentious issue of Turkey's ongoing aerial assaults against PKK bases in northern Iraq, Davutoğlu stated that the important thing is to create conditions that do not necessitate those operations dubbed hot pursuit.
As Davutoğlu hinted, there appears to be a positive climate regionally in particular vis-à-vis Iraq and the Northern Iraqi Kurds concerning a solution for reducing the PKK threat coming from the region.
This positive climate may be complicated if the Kurds and the Iraqi central authority come to clash over oil-rich Kirkuk while the Iraqi general elections planned in January next year are perceived as important for Turkey in maintaining Iraq's integrity. Davutoğlu raised concerns during last Monday's press conference that if Iraq's parliament does not have the capacity to represent all groups in the country, problems will emerge in the coming four to five years.
Inside Turkey, meanwhile, there have lately been developments on issues that appeared to be stumbling blocks in reaching a consensus at state level on a solution to the Kurdish issue.
Turkish chief of general staff, Gen. İlker Başbuğ, who is to retire next August, has taken a relatively positive stance on a solution to the Kurdish issue when he said on several occasions that military might alone will not end the conflict and that cultural and social steps are needed to address the problem.
However, since the release of an action plan published by Taraf daily in June of this year allegedly prepared by the General Staff that outlines plans to unseat the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and discredit the Gülen movement, it appears that the “cease-fire” struck between Başbuğ and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been broken. Since then the two have stopped meeting once a week as a means of sorting out differences behind closed doors.
This has been followed by an amendment made to a piece of legislation initiated by the AK Party and approved at a late-night debate by Parliament in late June, paving the way for military personnel to be tried at civilian courts in peacetime for anti-government activities, threats to national security, constitutional violations and organized crime.
Since those developments have taken place, the General Staff has given a break to its weekly press conferences, indicating an end to an already difficult civilian-military dialogue at the top level. This situation may impede the already difficult process of finding a solution to the Kurdish problem.
However, we may hear messages from Gen. Başbuğ or from other high-level commanders during the graduation ceremony of students from the War Academies Command to be held today in İstanbul.
