Although it will supply not more than 5 percent of Europe's annual gas needs, it is nevertheless a project of historical proportions. It may be seen as an alternative for Europe so it does not have to rely too heavily on Russian gas supplies, which at present stand at 30 percent. Concluding international agreements, including those about energy supplies, require able negotiators. It requires applause or criticism from the major opposition party too. In other words, has Turkey won or lost by becoming a transit country in this undertaking? I felt immense happiness for the Turkish people as only one decade ago a project like this, and with Turkey as its key transit country, would have been impossible. I am not referring to the high quality of Turkish engineers or the new pipeline's energy supply relevance, but rather to the fact that in the new millennium Turkey's role on the international (political) stage has gained significant momentum.
Let me put the now withdrawn Turkish request for “access to 15 percent of transit gas for domestic consumption” into perspective. Think international relations: if your country's strategic goals can be symbolized by means of using our alphabet and if you want to achieve M you have to ask for Z, not G. Yes, chances are you will not get Z but at least you may get H or K instead of only C or D. The message I wish to convey here is that in international politics you sometimes have to overstretch your demands in order not to be sidelined all too easily. Asking for 15 percent of the annual capacity of natural gas transiting Turkey, perhaps even at a reduced cost as had been expressed by the Turkish government, in order to allow the flow of gas in the first place has to be seen in this light. Although this goal was ultimately not achievable, the country will nevertheless be able to greatly benefit from Nabucco in many other ways. First, there are multiple political gains. Access to energy equals stability and the welfare of a nation's people. Nabucco is a perfect instrument to explain to European citizens that Turkey can help to provide just that. At the same time, Turkey is well advised not to put all its eggs into one basket and should not see the future pipeline as the one and only tool to increase its influence in the international political arena. Having said that, Ankara can now use Nabucco as a blueprint for further projects where Turkey will again become a key strategic partner for the European Union as well as non-EU countries.
Then there are the status gains: Turkey has once more shown that is has become a reliable, stable partner for Western Europe, or, in other words, that it has become part of it. Ankara has impressively portrayed itself as a city where projects of European, if not global, dimensions are ratified. Add promoting Turkey's domestic engineering capabilities to the benefits, and we understand the scope of its potential.
And finally there is the energy corridor link: the “where-does-our-gas-actually-come-from?” question has a new answer: it flows (safely) via Turkey. Can South Stream ruin the celebrations? Not really. As 95 per cent of Europe's natural gas supplies will continue to come from and by other pipelines and means, South Stream is only one project, and there may be many others. Actually, Turkey may be asked to advise the EU on how best to obtain its energy if it plays the “energy corridor” card correctly. Diversification is one such remedy: Never rely too heavily on one or two supplier countries.
While Europe and Turkey celebrated, Turkey's major opposition party had nothing better to do than to ask the Constitutional Court to annul another law. Do we have a shadow energy minister? Do we have a shadow cabinet in place? The fact that we apparently do not shows us two things. First, the government and the opposition attach different levels of importance to different issues, which by itself is nothing unusual and is actually quite healthy, politically speaking. My second observation: the present opposition party seems to be rather distanced from events that positively shape Turkey's future and focuses on technicalities instead of on proactive policies, which is not a healthy development at all. I would have liked to hear Turkey's shadow energy minister either supporting or, if justified, criticizing Nabucco -- if we had a shadow energy minister in place, that is.
In between the A to Z of successful international relations and celebrating Nabucco, we can easily declare this week's winners: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkey, the future pipeline itself, Europe and its citizens, and of course those countries and their peoples which will supply the natural gas. No need to mention who lost.
