This is not necessarily something Turkey should worry about too much. Elections for the EP are always a mirror of domestic issues, and it seems European topics are not really topping the voters' agenda. Notwithstanding this fact, the EP is one of the three key fully fledged institutions of the European Union, shares the burden of the EU's decision making and can veto the budget. It has a very important role to play in accepting a new European Commission, too.The day-to-day work within the EP is based on an unwritten consensus which stipulates that the socialist and the conservative groups cooperate. For a long period they more or less decided about each and every important issue amongst themselves, including whom to nominate as president or vice president of that EU institution. It is important for Turkey to understand this basic principle of EP politics.
Over time a few more actors became part of that power-sharing agreement, and after last week's elections the Greens under Daniel Cohn-Bendit have increased their level of influence. The conservative group in the EP has increased their share of seats, too, and here is where we stand today: from blue to red via green and some yellow (aka liberals) in between, Turkey should start building alliances with all the major political factions within the EP to drum up support for its EU entry as a full member.
The key to all these efforts is to continue with the domestic reform process without paying too much attention to comments attributed to anti-Turkey officials. These circles cannot block the continuation of Turkey's EU accession train but would be delighted to have Turkey withdraw its own application. Hence, negative publicity about the most recent EP elections plays into the hands of the anti-EU lobby in Turkey, too. Both are a minority but have considerable influence and should be treated as such.
Proactive lobbying is key to better communication with the European public, which will ultimately decide about Turkey's accession by voting for a certain national government, or not. This should include all the EU's institutions, and the EP is one of the most important ones, as any new policy suggestion coming from the European Commission regarding future enlargement has to pass the EP, too. The commission is already very Turkey-friendly, and the EP voted in favor of extending the invitation to Turkey to start accession talks by a very large margin. Now, how best to liaise with all the EP's political groupings?
Contrary to popular belief I would argue that the best long-term ally for Turkey is the “blue” faction, or the combination of Christian Democrats and conservatives. Assuming that all of them are anti-Turkey is a serious mistake, and only relying on support from the Socialists and the Greens is not enough in this new Parliament. Conservatives understand economic dimensions and are natural allies for Turkey as an emerging economic and political power within Europe. If fully appreciated and lobbied effectively, Turkey will have a majority in this EP for its accession plans as it had in the previous one.
A key to convincing all political groupings is the expected number of seats that will be allocated to Turkey once a full EU member. It will not change the nature of the EP as such but the possibility of adding between 30 and 60 seats to your own political grouping should be sold as being very tempting, indeed. Issues matter, too; a stable Turkey as an integral part of the EU is perhaps no guarantee but definitely a step in the right direction to safeguard European jobs and related manufacturing output. It would create a modern, liberal, open-minded Europe which could then start to fight against a very unwelcome phenomenon -- the continued popularity of extreme-right parties and xenophobic groupings in many EU countries.
Many commentators have picked up this issue as further proof that Europe has closed its doors to Turkey. The number of far-right parties and the number of seats they won last week has not increased substantially; they rather cemented their minority position with far less than 50 seats. While their voter's concerns have to be taken seriously as to re-integrate them into the political mainstream, they also act as a ventilator; banning all these parties would most likely lead to more people supporting their goals. Take Jean-Marie Le Pen as the most prominent example. Not allowing him to stand as a candidate would turn many of his supporters even more violent and look for success in the extra-parliamentary arena. Knowing how many people vote for him allows centrist politicians to re-adjust their policies and avoid further polarization and conflict.
The newly elected EP will have a new president as it seems a liberal will take over from Hans-Gert Pöttering. Breakfast with Daniel Cohn-Bendit? Any time! But Turkey should now extend invitations to all democratic groupings within the European Parliament to fast-track its EU accession. It is the right time to establish closer ties with all of them. Blue, red and green -- it is up to Turkey to make the most of the new political landscape in Europe.
