It seems that the conflicts in the western Middle East -- Gaza -- are capable of boosting the influence of radical groups and anti-Western sentiments in the region. For Iraq, 2009 will be the year when US troops will hand over control of the cities to the Iraqi army. This may raise difficulties for the Obama administration, which has announced that anti-terrorism efforts must focus not on Iraq, but on Afghanistan. Indeed, the ever-increasing casualties have started to confuse the minds of US citizens. The primary goals of the US are to ensure that there is an established system in Iraq, that Iran's influence is curbed and that US interests are well maintained. Today, every group in the country complains about Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Maliki's supporters are generally Shiite and of Dawa origin. There is no improvement in the services performed by the government. In order to reinforce his power, Maliki seeks to introduce a presidential system, but this is very unlikely. The supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr complain that Maliki failed to keep his promises. In a move to expand his sphere of influence, al-Sadr is acting as a mediator between Kurds and Arabs in Mosul. Although everyone criticizes Maliki, there is consensus among various groups, with the exception of the Kurds, on maintaining the office of Maliki as the prime minister. The fact that Maliki has managed to establish a proper army and ensured security is partially attributable to this consensus.
Parliamentary elections in Iraq will be held in January 2010. Will Shiite groups establish a United Iraqi Alliance? Will open or closed lists be used in the elections? In open lists, voters can vote not only for political parties, but also for the candidates. Because of this, Maliki lost in Kerbala, where he was considerably strong, in the provincial elections in January 2009. Closed lists were used during the local elections in 2005. If closed lists are used in the parliamentary elections in 2010 and if Shiites join the United Iraqi Alliance, which al-Sadr joined as well, Shiites may come out of the elections very successful. Al-Sadr, who generally appeals to young villagers or poor Shiites, might be directly nominated in order to boost his success in the 2010 elections. Al-Sadr has a well-established voter base consisting of 1.5 million young and disciplined people. On the other hand, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is more attractive to urban, middle and upper-class Shiites. While analyses center on the mobility of Shiite groups for another election victory, they tend to forget about Sunni Arabs. How Sunnis, who have had no expectations during the occupation of Iraq and suffered continual repression, will reclaim their power in the rule of Baghdad is a matter of concern. As the US is pulling out, Sunnis may turn all cities, Baghdad in particular, into fireballs. If the election results do not satisfy Sunnis, the north and south of the country may see ethnicity-based or sectarian conflicts that may continue for years. Such conflicts are likely to emerge in Mosul, Hanekin and Diyala between Kurds and Sunni Arabs in the north and between the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) and al-Sadrist groups in the south.
Turkey's economic and political influence on Iraq is increasing, and it is respected by all political groups in Iraq, but it is determined not to meddle in the parliamentary elections. Turkey seeks to maintain the territorial integrity and unity of Iraq. It seeks to see Kurds live in a peaceful environment, but not to expand towards the south. It supports Turkmens, but does not want them to forget about the fundamental interests of Iraq. It aims to facilitate the transportation of Iraq's energy resources to international markets and to make a greater contribution to the welfare of the country and institutionalization of democracy in the region.
