Erdoğan's visit came after Azerbaijan made clear its uneasiness with the prospects of normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia without an end to Armenia's occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. During his visit, Erdoğan gave firm and clear assurances to Turkey's regional and ethnic ally that Turkey would not open its border with Armenia until the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory ended. Some analysts said Erdoğan's Baku visit was a good step toward easing Azerbaijan's concerns and saving it from a feeling of isolation, while others said this visit has made normalization with Armenia impossible in the near future. Milliyet's Sami Kohen says that with his Baku visit Erdoğan eliminated the resentment and distrust of the Azerbaijanis that had emerged over the prospects of rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia without the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. But he also says that this time Turkey made a move against Armenia in its policy, which it has been carrying out ambiguously in recent months. “In the emerging picture, a direct link has been established between normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. In addition, Erdoğan's promise about not opening borders with Armenia without the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute shows that Turkey will not take any steps toward normalization, such as opening the border gate, for a long while, because the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue seems likely to take a long time,” Kohen explains. He argues that one should not expect many steps regarding the roadmap that was recently set out with Armenia. “I think all the sides have now retreated to their former positions,” Kohen adds.
Star's Fadime Özkan says she is happy about the results of Erdoğan's Baku visit, noting that it has led to the emergence of a new spring in relations with Azerbaijan, ending resentment that had the potential to grow into a political crisis between Ankara and Baku. Before Erdoğan's visit, Özkan had reported from Baku that there was great disappointment and a feeling of isolation there, but now she says Erdoğan put Baku's concerns to rest with his visit.
Radikal's Cengiz Çandar thinks that although Erdoğan eliminated Baku's concerns with his visit, he left Turkey's Caucasus diplomacy stuck in the mud. “Let me say it from the very beginning: Erdoğan put forward a terrible example of diplomacy. He linked Turkey's Caucasus diplomacy to İlham Aliyev's rule. Unless Erdoğan had received assurances from Russia or the US about an imminent solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute before embarking on this visit with his five ministers and was enjoying the comfort of this knowledge, he committed Turkey to the diplomatic inactivity and status quo of past years,” Çandar contends. Erdoğan linked the opening of Turkey's border with Armenia to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, which, in Çandar's view, means that normalization of relations with Armenia will be impossible in the short term. “Erdoğan handed Turkey's diplomatic ropes over to Aliyev, and Aliyev mentioned the pleasure he felt about this,” Çandar says, noting that the worst part of Erdoğan's “Baku show” was the fact that Turkey has once again shown its inability to solve problems.
