What is clear is that it is also a tool to protect Turkey-American relations, including one that gives US President Barack Obama breathing space with the US's Armenian diaspora community. As long as Turkey and Armenia are seen to be making progress, he should be able to resist pressure vis-à-vis the recognition of 1915 as genocide and thereby keep Washington's ties with Ankara intact at a time when the US needs a strong ally and friend in this problematic region more than ever. The road map also offers Turkey a way out of the growing storm that has been brewing in Baku. Azerbaijan was deeply upset that Ankara was seemingly prepared to reopen its border with Armenia without getting concessions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (the reason Turkey closed its border in the first place). Given that it is now highly unlikely that the border will be reopened anytime soon, Baku should feel more relaxed. Rather, over the remainder of 2009, relations between Turkey and Armenia should increasingly normalize through deeper cooperation in areas of mutual interest to foster trust between the two neighbors and, nearing the end of the year, the border may be reopened. Even so, opening borders is one thing, but opening minds will be something else entirely; reaching a compromise solution with Armenia on how to deal with the genocide issue will not be easy, particularly in light of public opinion on both sides of the border and decades-old policy, a nationalist narrative on this issue.
Clearly, outside powers, including the EU and the US, have a keen interest in this development not only for their desire to foster and consolidate the independence of all three southern Caucasus states but also to see come to fruition the important East-West transit corridors and gas pipelines from the Caspian to Europe. The EU, although initially resistant to becoming too involved in a region so far away, clearly viewed as Russia's turf by the Kremlin, found itself in the thick of things and having to take a leading role in the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia war; the EU is now slowly trying to increase stability, prosperity and values in the region through its new foreign policy tools -- the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Eastern Partnership. Therefore, Turkey's efforts are of direct benefit to the EU, too.
Unfortunately, these developments have little impact on the state of Turkey's membership talks, so there is still little to smile about. The year 2009 was supposed to be one of revival, but with one-third of it already gone it seems that this revival is taking some time. Between January and March, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) made promise after promise that the process of reforms would be re-energized after the municipal elections. But as of now, this has not materialized. It is little wonder that the new EU chief negotiator, Egeman Bağış, is seemingly resistant to speaking in Brussels these days. He clearly needs something big to report. And at the same time, the EU has continued to lose its credibility with the ongoing sabotage of the negotiation process by a number of visionless leaders who continue to make counterproductive and unnecessary statements. While French President Nicolas Sarkozy declared he would not stop opposing Turkish accession as long as he was alive, his foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, declared he had "changed his mind" based on Turkey's opposition to the appointment of Anders Fogh Rasmussen as the next NATO secretary-general -- two issues that are totally separate. However, for some in the EU, any old excuse will do and I really wonder where it will end. Turkey's membership drive is also inextricably tied to the Cyprus issue. The Greek Cypriots have been using their position in Brussels to regularly stymie Ankara's EU bid, while at the same time there are some member states that are happy to see the Cyprus problem remain unresolved because as long as this is the case, Turkey cannot accede to the EU.
It almost seems that the more Turkey does, the farther away the EU goal becomes. Although Turkey is still harshly criticized for many things, it is also worth remembering what Turkey has actually achieved in the last few years. In many respects, Turkey has much to be proud of in both political and economic terms and many red lines have been crossed, including on Cyprus, freedoms, the Kurdish issue and now on Armenia. Turkey certainly has the capacity to do more, but it needs help and support and the EU needs to start delivering it rather than undermining the process. For example, I was recently told that even after more than four years of negotiations, the screening process (the long process of comparing the bloc's legislation with that of Turkey, involving approximately 80,000 pages of EU laws and regulations) is still ongoing for 10 chapters. This is really flabbergasting given that the process usually takes around two years. The EU should be embarrassed of its treatment toward such an important ally and partner.
