The symbolism of this visit would have been much different had Obama decided to come to Ankara after visiting Cairo, Amman, Beirut, Tel Aviv and Riyadh. But a visit to Turkey after visiting London, Strasbourg and Prague is a whole different affair. The message is crystal clear: Turkey belongs in Europe.There is no doubt the United States is a strong supporter of Turkey's EU membership. This has been a bipartisan policy of the United States. It is, of course, a totally different question to ask whether such strong American support helps Turkey's chances in Europe. Europeans are often irritated when an American president lectures them about Turkey's geo-strategic importance. Former French President Jacques Chirac once reminded then-President George W. Bush -- at a NATO summit in İstanbul, of all places -- that America is not a member of the European Union and that France does not lecture Washington on how to treat Mexico. But that was then. Gone are the days when America had a dismal image across Europe. The public perception of the United States changed drastically with the election of Barack Hussein Obama to the presidency. But make no mistake. There will always be serious European reluctance to being lectured about Turkey. It is just that the level of tolerance for President Obama will be different. At least out of civility and politeness, some Europeans will be more willing to listen to America's praise for Turkey.
Yet, at the end of the day, none of this will change the fact that it is up to Turkey to prove that it has genuinely become a European country. It is not America's help that will carry Ankara to Brussels. And lately, it is hard to avoid the impression that this journey has become much more tortuous. Europe is plagued with "enlargement fatigue" and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. France and Germany are in no mood to contemplate new members, especially one with a population of 75 million. In fact, forget Turkey -- the Western part of the EU seems to be in deep regret about the expansion to Eastern Europe. There seems to be a growing nostalgia for the good old days when the EU was a small and wealthy Western European club.
So what can Obama and Turkey do together to improve Turkey's chances of EU membership? For starters, Ankara and Washington have to focus on improving their own badly damaged relations over the last eight years under President Bush. The good news on that front is that Iraq is no longer a major problem in Turkish-American relations. Turks are now increasingly engaged with the Kurds in northern Iraq and Turkish-American cooperation against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is at an all time high. Of course, there are potential problems that need to be discussed, such as the eventual status of Kirkuk and the need to improve Sunni-Shiite cooperation in Baghdad, but overall this is a big improvement compared to 2006 when Turkey was seriously considering its military options in northern Iraq.
Another area where President Obama will ask for Turkey's help is Afghanistan. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan is a war President Obama considers legitimate and valid for American national security interests. He will be asking for more Turkish support. Now that the US has lost the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan, the importance of the İncirlik airbase has grown significantly. It is in Washington's interest to maximize Turkey's support for Afghanistan and to use the İncirlik base for logistic support to Kabul and to help facilitate America's exit from Iraq. Yet, none of this is likely to happen if President Obama decides to honor his campaign promise of recognizing the Armenian genocide. Turkey, in retaliation, may even decide to shut down the İncirlik base. It is therefore imperative for Obama's visit to address the Armenian question. The key development in the aftermath of President Obama's visit to Turkey may very well be Ankara's decision to open the border with Armenia, coupled with the launch of a diplomatic process of historic reconciliation. Such a development would provide the face-saving excuse Mr. Obama desperately needs to refrain from honoring his campaign promise on April 24 -- Armenian Remembrance Day. Turkey's opening of the border with Armenia would hit two birds with one stone because progress on the Turkish-Armenian front will also pay dividends with the European Union.
