Ever since last summer, when we heard the verdict of the Constitutional Court, precious time was -- if one disregards certain progress on foreign policy matters -- wasted in election campaigns. Not only was the economic crisis met with a considerable amount of indifference, but also major reforms were delayed until after March.Yesterday Today's Zaman reported that major figures in EU politics want a swift restart now that the elections are over. Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, a leading liberal in the European Parliament, Hannes Swoboda, a prominent socialist MEP, and Joost Lagendijk all agree on the need for speeding up the pace of reforms. These are expectations that are shared by other powerful allies and friends of Turkey.
The fact of the matter is that the exodus of voter support for the AK Party that stemmed from the well-known "second-term fatigue" is to be analyzed with regard to the disappointment of liberal, social democrat and even conservative votes that regularly went to AK Party until now. There has been a loss of excitement about the current AK Party and a yearning for the AK Party of the earlier period, with its soft and proud approach to change. Liberal and center-left votes stand there in limbo, perhaps to be lost forever. One can even argue that the escape of some "deep conservative" votes -- to the Felicity party (SP) -- indicates dismay over the ruling party's failure to solve the headscarf issue as part of its big reform plans.
It would, then, be rather logical to expect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to do his homework and set the ship to sail toward waters of further change, regaining the spirit that made the AK Party unchallenged. As a matter of fact, it is still the only party that has EU membership as a serious point on its agenda.
But the question is whether or not Erdoğan will disperse the fog of post-election confusion and rise to the challenge. Nobody really knows. What is known is that the "worn-out" Cabinet needs some fresh energy and ideas. To go on as if nothing had happened, as he did after the critical decision of the Constitutional Court to refrain from closing the AK Party, will only accelerate the party's downhill race.
And it is not just any new names that he will need should he decide to reshape his party as a magnetic field for liberal, "conservative-globalist" and center-left voters. Not only does he have to send a very clear message with his choices in this long-overdue reshuffling, but he also has to include figures who can challenge him in the political decision-making process. We all know for certain that the more he has been left alone as "the almighty leader" on top of the AK Party, the more erratic the decision-making process has become. This is what happens to you when you allow yourself to be surrounded by a thick bunch of "yes, prime minister" people who are of no use.
But the problem only starts there. As certain management flaws have proven, there is a serious problem of human resources within the party's parliamentary crowd. When Abdullah Gül and Abdüllatif Şener left the AK Party, a vacuum was created. When Bülent Arınç, the former parliament speaker, withdrew into relative seclusion, the process of "collective wisdom" received a severe blow. Now, unfortunately, Erdoğan does not have many alternative ministers to choose from.
Nevertheless, there are some figures who can make reasonable judgments on the path to reform. First of all, Erdoğan must return to Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat, an influential Kurdish AK Party deputy who was the driving force for the shelved constitutional reform and an "expert" on the Kurdish question. Until recently, it was only Fırat who could openly, without fear of being intimidated, raise objections to Erdoğan. His resignation as vice chairman of the AK Party last year left another hole in the party.
The question, then, is whether or not Erdoğan will take the risk of alienating the "old guard." Should he do this, possibly the first one to go would be Cemil Çiçek, whose latest gaffe over the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) as "the dangerous other" angered even the prime minister himself. Çiçek is amongst those seen as stumbling blocks in the way of the reform process.
There are some figures within the tiny "social liberal" flank of the party whose qualifications were not valued properly. One of them is Suat Kınıklıoğlu, with a powerful command of languages and vast knowledge of EU and US affairs. The other is Haluk Özdalga, a former social democrat who enjoys respect amongst his comrades in Europe.
When these three names are seen in shortlists, then we will be closer to a new start to the reform process. The less "local" Erdoğan makes his next Cabinet, the closer Turkey will be to the right path. Otherwise, Turkey will be headed for a new era of instability and unpredictability.
