But, let me leave it with a quick note: Seemingly written with more eloquent judicial language when compared to the one before, the additional indictment is full of potential -- if successfully argued -- to put an end to pipe dreams of military coups and force the almighty military machine of Turkey to structural reform.More on that, later…
With only two days left and counting, all eyes are on how the people will vote in the politically larger-than-itself March 29 local elections. The significance of this one is -- as others before -- that it is not all about the mayors and city councils, but about the future of Turkey, and therefore, about what comes next, from April on. It is about whether or not the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) consolidation of power is to be expected and what the impact on the political landscape will be.
As noted by some columnists, local issues are pushed back into the deep dark corners of the agenda and the average voter is more inclined to focus on the economic crisis, the Kurdish issue, corruption, Ergenekon, terror and, in general, stability and predictability.
Timely enough, we have had the chance to look through three opinion polls in the past three to four days. All three are issued by reliable pollsters -- KONDA, A&G and MetroPOLL. Two of them more or less overlap in conclusions. The odd one out is A&G.
KONDA is known for its director, Tarhan Erdem, who is a devoted, modern, Western-type of Social Democrat. His predictions have almost always proven to be accurate. Erdem's teams talked face-to-face with 7,615 people in 53 provinces (out of the 81 provinces nationwide). They represent urban as well as rural voters.
KONDA suggests to us that the upcoming provincial council elections (not those of the mayors, since they do not fairly represent the national voter trends) will reflect the political landscape that was shaped by the July 22, 2007 national vote. Erdem predicts that on Sunday, 47.9 percent of the population will vote for the AK Party, 23.5 percent for main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and 14.3 percent for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Furthermore, KONDA asked people: "Which party would you vote for if the national elections took place tomorrow?" In that case, 51.8 percent of the vote is for the AK Party, 22.9 percent for the CHP and 13.2 percent for the MHP.
Some conclusions of KONDA are noteworthy: The AK Party and the CHP have increased their share of votes compared to the local elections in 2004 and small parties are fading. The AK Party receives votes mainly from the middle and lower-middle classes nationwide. Thus, the AK Party seems to have consolidated its identity as a true party of the masses. The CHP is expected to increase its vote (60+ percent) in big cities. Most of the vote is that of sheer desperation, due to "dismay" with the AK Party. Kurds in the country in general will tend to vote more for the AK Party (35 percent of them) and the Democratic Society Party (DTP; 27 percent). Finally, 23 percent of the people asked believe there is a need for a new party.
MetroPOLL, talking to some 2,400 people by phone in all 81 provinces, reaches similar conclusions. Its director, Özer Sencar, is a conservative pollster whose credibility and seriousness have been proven over time. Sencar adopts a different approach: He is very cautious in dealing with the undecided (around 10.9 percent) and those who "don't want to tell" (7.6 percent). In the interest of caution, he leaves out the latter category, forecasting 44.3 percent for the AK Party, 22.4 percent for the CHP and 11.5 for the MHP. If you insist, he will add the undecided (but not the "secretive") voters to the final tableau and the AK Party increases to 44.3 percent, the CHP to 19.2 percent and the MHP to 11.3 percent. This is the poll Sencar thinks reflects the latest mindset.
MeproPOLL concludes that we will re-experience July 22, 2007 election results. By far, Erdoğan leads in popularity as a leader. Only one of four CHP voters trusts Deniz Baykal as a leader. This leads us to believe, Sencar says, that most of the voters this time will vote against their will for the CHP in the absence of a "better" option. That is the reason why even the economic crisis does not "shake" the average voter.
Adil Gür, another reliable pollster who leads opinion survey company A&G, differs somewhat. In a survey completed for CNN Türk, the A&G survey is based on direct interviews of 5,412 people in 44 provinces. Including the "undecided," we learn that the AK Party remains at 39.8 percent, the CHP rises to 26.4 percent and the MHP rises to 15.2 percent.
A&G also asked KONDA's question: "What if the national vote was tomorrow?" Then, the AK Party rises to 42.5 percent, the CHP to 35.3 percent and the MHP to 15.8 percent.
All three pollsters point to the new phenomenon that votes concentrate on three parties and the CHP gains some votes in urban areas.
My own prediction is the AK Party will remain around the safe 45 percent, with minor deviations plus or minus, while the CHP goes above 23 percent. The MHP will not change by much, and neither will the DTP nor the Felicity Party (SP).
The lack of alternatives in the left flank solidifies the political status quo.
