A map of risks government and opposition may face

The Justice and Development Party

It has become obvious that the AK Party is still able to attract voters in considerable numbers to its rallies. It snows and it rains, but voters are not distracted in the least in the face of difficulty. It is a great advantage for a party to have such enthusiastic supporters. Yet, this may also prove to be disadvantageous to them as well. The most obvious risk facing the AK Party in the short term is the sense of relaxation that may overtake the party's supporters. This sense of relaxation among supporters of right-wing parties has always led to unexpected results. The perception that the "AK Party is performing considerably well" may cause some AK Party supporters to not cast votes or to cast their votes for other parties. This is what Turgut Özal meant when he said, "It exceeded the proper limit," about the unexpected reaction in the 1989 local elections.

The sense of relaxation portrayed by the media is not limited to right-wing parties. This was what happened to the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) during the last parliamentary elections. The excitement at the CHP rallies created the illusion that it would definitely be successful. But it failed to boost its votes despite its merger with the Democratic Left Party (DSP). A similar overconfidence in the AK Party's election victory may pave the way for voters to shift their votes to other right-wing parties, particularly the Felicity Party (SP). It is for this reason the media organizations that advocate harsh opposition to the AK Party are garnering special interest in the mayoral candidates of the SP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

As the global economic crisis is taking its toll all around the world and is making itself felt in our lives more strongly each day, it is unlikely that this is having a negative effect on the popularity of the ruling party. Fortunately, some media organizations who have assumed the role of an opposition party are irrationally exaggerating the economic crisis in their news reports, and this automatically raises reactions and doubts in people's minds. While they are virtually silent about vital issues such as the Ergenekon investigation, they are exerting their best efforts to confuse people about the crisis through exaggerated news reports, and this causes the crisis to not be perceived with negative feelings, as would be expected. The opposition parties have not been able to explain the crisis in a sufficiently rational manner. Can you see the irony? On one side is a left-wing party accusing the government of not inking a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and on the other side is a government that says, "We will defend the interests of our country until the end, and we will strike a deal if we obtain guarantees." Which one will appear more sympathetic to society?

Nevertheless, the global crisis may still have negative effects on the AK Party. The majority of society believes the party when it says that the entire responsibility of the crisis does not belong to them because they did not trigger it. Yet, the crisis has adverse effects on the people. In such cases, people may act emotionally and show such reactions. For this reason, the government must take all possible measures in order to be convincing in its discourse. In this respect, the economic measures and packages of such measures announced one after another by the government are important. Also, it is a politically correct move to stress the lack of alternatives open to them by saying, "Only we can solve the biggest crisis in the world." But, in order for this to be convincing, the measures taken must give rise to promising results. The general public casts their votes based on information and through intuition; those who fail to understand this may have difficulties in sailing through the political arena...

 The primary risk for the AK Party in the long run is something different. In the past, the AK Party garnered the support of large masses with its reformist, progressive and pro-change agenda. If the party does not live up to expectations, this perception about the party may be clouded. In other words, the target of attaining a participatory and pluralist democracy -- initiated by the EU membership process and supported by the masses -- must be maintained by new acts and moves. In this framework, both the government's stance toward the Kurdish issue and its promise to lend full support to the Ergenekon investigation are considerably important. Concrete steps must be taken for the realization of the ideals of democratization, transparency and becoming a free society -- despite ongoing objections -- so that the party does not lose its raison d'être.

Backed by the criticisms voiced by the periphery against the center in 2002, the AK Party mobilized a great deal of support and sympathy and secured an overwhelming election victory. Though some may disagree, it is obvious that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not only a successful local political leader, but also a phenomenon with international fame. And the AK Party is now a center party. Accordingly, it has intricately close relations with state organs and it has to show greater care to maintain certain balances. Even under these conditions, the AK Party must update the democratic items in its reform agenda. If the AK Party starts to fall behind the society's demand for freedoms, the trouble will start there. For this reason, the ruling party must prepare a new and liberal manifesto regardless of the results of the local elections. If it manages to remove the barriers for a participatory and pluralist democracy, including amendments to the Political Parties Law, this will give a jolt not only to the party, but also the entire country.

Republican People’s Party  

Some fundamental steps are needed for the CHP to recover. Increasing its votes by several points will not inject hope into the party. It must ponder some fundamental issues and make some new and unexpected moves in order to become a likely candidate for assuming office in the government. The current mentality of the party will deprive them of this likelihood for tens of years. Indeed, the CHP has lost several critical opportunities. When the e-memorandum of April 27 was posted, if the CHP had said, 'This is a move is against democracy and cannot be approved," this would have boosted the growth of the party and, at the same, making its leader a hero of democracy. But the CHP did not choose this correct, albeit difficult, route. It always waited for someone to "deliver them the government on a golden platter." It always gave the impression of a party resorting to illegitimate methods against the government. The attempt to derive power from constitutional organs when it could not obtain it through democratic means weakened the CHP...

Fortunately, the CHP has not resorted to such means ahead of the elections slated for March 29. It has not based its election campaign on the secular-anti-secular conflict. It has attempted to make peace with the people thanks to efforts from the party's İstanbul organization. İstanbul branch chairman Gürsel Tekin and his team have undertaken a number of democratic initiatives to give the party a democratic face. This was the strongest wind blown into the sails of the party. The effort, which was called the chador initiative, has enabled the party to set sail toward new voters. However, like every other initiative, this, too, must sound convincing to the ears of voters. At this point, several miscommunications occurred. The improper treatment of a woman wearing a chador in the election bus of the CHP has given rise to doubts about the initiative...

Following the chador initiative came the proposal to establish Quran courses in every neighborhood, implying that the party (or at least many of its members) sought change. However you call it, this was the CHP's attempt to bury the hatchet with the ordinary people. Moreover, these initiatives were perceived as a message to Chief Public Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya. From that moment on, it would be a double standard to accuse the AK Party of being the focal point of anti-secularism. The CHP's initiatives were not restricted to religious issues. The party has also taken considerable steps with respect to the Kurdish issue. Today, there are not only CHP mayoral candidates seeking to convert the Ayasofya into a mosque and headscarved candidates for city councils, but also CHP members discussing such steps as the Kurdish Mawlid -- a praising of Prophet Muhammad that takes place during certain days of the lunar calendar --  and Kurdish sermons. The CHP must both come to terms with devout people to strengthen its "faith-friendly secularism" concept and reconcile with the people in the East and Southeast.

Another risk facing the CHP is the Ergenekon investigation. While there are obvious weapons, bombs, sketches, assassinations and chaotic acts at hand, the CHP continues to act as if the defendants in the Ergenekon trial are standing trial because of their ideas, and this causes negative perceptions about the CHP to take root. What should have been done with respect to the Ergenekon investigation is obvious: If they had said, "We should not discredit public authorities, but if there are people who overstepped their authority, they must be held accountable by the judiciary," this would have saved them from their current image as the lawyer for Ergenekon.