However, the combination of the increasing geostrategic importance of this neighborhood and the desire of the countries concerned to broaden their horizons and integrate themselves further with the West has resulted in something of a tug-of-war beginning to take place between the West and Russia. Six states in particular -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine -- find themselves in an increasingly undesirable situation of being caught in the middle. The two most troublesome have been Georgia and Ukraine. Both held color revolutions, allied themselves closely to the West through the election of pro-American anti-Russian presidents and pushed for closer integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions. Georgia has already paid the price and Russia successfully crushed the tiny nation following the events of August 2008. While the West declared that Russia should not be allowed to get away with its actions and that business as usual would be off the agenda until it complied with international law, six months later it seems that it is very much business as usual and Russia is more assertive than ever. The EU is back to business and the US is seemingly prepared to give the Russians a fresh start, too. While Ukraine, on the other hand, may not have been crushed (yet), the country is down on its knees both politically and economically. Although its leadership is heavily to blame, there is no doubt that meddling from Moscow, including involvement in Ukraine's energy sector and extensive shady oligarch links are also a big factor. Then there is the hotspot of Crimea, which is basically a mini-Russia (Ukraine is home to the largest Russian-speaking minority of the former Soviet Union) and which could be used by Russia to stir up trouble for Kyiv at any given moment. Russia wants its nose in everything; earlier this week when Ukraine presented in Brussels a "master plan" to modernize its energy transit infrastructure, the Russians declared that both the Ukraine and the EU's energy security might suffer if the Kremlin was not consulted.
In addition, the NATO aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine have also been crushed. All the promises made to these fledgling nations have disappeared in a puff of smoke and I have serious doubts either will ever make it into NATO.
As for the others, Armenia and Belarus remain under Moscow's thumb. The West is attempting to woo Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, but hopes are not high as Belarus is heavily dependent on Moscow economically. Moldova still struggles with a frozen conflict -- backed by Moscow -- on its territory and attempts to play the West and Russia off each other. Only Azerbaijan finds itself in the somewhat privileged position of having a choice because of its extensive hydrocarbon reserves in the Caspian Sea, which both Russia and the West are fighting to get their hands on.
However, at the same time, the EU has finally woken up from its comatose position on this region and realized it needs to make some efforts to counterbalance Russia if it wants a stable, secure and prosperous neighborhood. At the recent EU summit, heads of state agreed to adopt the so-called Eastern Partnership. The Eastern Partnership aims to strengthen relations between the EU and these six countries through closer economic and political ties, including free trade and eventual visa-free regimes. This is something the EU should have done a long time ago, but as usual it always takes a crisis to spur them into action. The events in Georgia woke the EU up from its complacency and while there is still no desire for any of these countries to be allowed to join the EU, there is a realization that it is in their interests to promote closer economic and political relations with them, including helping them democratize and have increased respect for the rule of law and human rights.
Although Russia does not necessarily see the EU initiative as a threat in the way it views NATO enlargement, the Kremlin still remains wary of anything it sees as encroaching on their sphere of influence. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already accused the EU of something the EU usually accuses the Russians of -- trying to get these countries under its sphere of influence. However, the difference is that the EU goes about it in a different way. It is the free choice of the countries involved as to whether they engage with the EU. On the other hand, the Kremlin has other methods to keep these countries under its thumb. Nonetheless, I don't imagine the Russians really have much to worry about because of three things. First, the finance offer is peanuts -- 600 billion euros for all six countries. Second, the EU has no intention of offering any of these countries the prospect of membership. Without such a prospect it would seem highly unlikely that these nations would be able to muster the political will to carry out the reforms necessary to reap the benefits offered by the EU. Finally, for some in the EU, Russia will always take priority over the likes of Ukraine and Moldova.
