He surely is one of the most distinguished Western experts, not only on Turkey-US relations but also on Turkish foreign policy in general. Fuller, in an article titled "Our fraying alliance with Turkey," published about a year and a half ago, after listing the large number of areas in which US and Turkish policies were in conflict, concluded by saying that "we had better get used to the fact that Turkey, strengthened by its popular democracy, is going to pursue its own national interests, regardless of Washington's pressure." (Los Angeles Times, Oct. 19, 2007)Even the Bush administration seemed to heed that advice in its final years. In the Obama period, it looks highly likely that Washington and Ankara, long-time NATO allies, will leave behind disagreements and move towards deepening cooperation. The initial signal was surely Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent visit to Ankara during which she announced President Obama's visit to Turkey next month. There are a number of factors that point towards closer relations between Turkey and the US under Obama.
The US now has a president who, like the government in Ankara, opposed the invasion of Iraq, and his administration seems to have abandoned for good the disastrous Bush idea of spreading democracy by military force. The new American leadership is signaling a new foreign policy approach which, like Turkey under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, will give priority to finding solutions to international problems through diplomacy, dialogue and compromise.
Some of the other areas in which Ankara and Washington are moving closer are the following: Ankara's relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq have improved remarkably after the forming of a trilateral security mechanism between Turkey, the US and Iraq, including the KRG, to fight against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels. Secretary of State Clinton confirmed in Ankara that the PKK is a "common enemy" of the US and Turkey.
The Bush administration, which declared Iran a part of the "axis of evil," was disturbed by Turkey's deepening relations with neighboring Iran, a vital source in meeting its energy needs. The Obama administration, on the other hand, is cautiously looking for ways to establish dialogue with Tehran. It has been announced that Washington is planning to invite Iran to a soon-to-convene conference on Afghanistan. There are signs that Ankara will play a mediating role between Washington and Tehran.
Bush was equally disturbed by Turkey's ever-improving relations with Syria, which the US wanted to isolate. Obama, however, has taken the first steps to initiate a dialogue with Syria. Clinton while in Ankara expressed her appreciation for Turkey's efforts towards peace in the region in general and especially between Syria and Israel.
A revolution has taken place in relations between Ankara and Moscow. Russia has become Turkey's major supplier of energy and its leading trade partner. Ankara did not hide its discomfort with Bush's efforts towards isolating Moscow, and especially of the missile defense system to be deployed in Eastern Europe. Obama in a private letter last month offered Russia a halt to the missile defense system deployment if Moscow could help prevent Iran from developing long-range weapons and nuclear warheads.
Turkey has close ties that include a military treaty with Israel. It was one of the first countries to recognize both Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Turks have strong sympathy for the Palestinians, who have suffered Israeli invasion and oppression for 40 years. Ankara, in its efforts towards peace between Israel and the Palestinians, established diplomatic dialogue with Hamas after the latter's election victory in 2006. The Bush administration rejected all contact with Hamas. It is true that Obama has so far failed to respond to calls from Hamas for dialogue. But there are many among Obama's advisors, including Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski, who urge talks with Hamas. The Obama administration has so far refused contacts with Hezbollah in Lebanon, too, but it has signaled readiness for dialogue with moderate elements of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Needless to say, Ankara's strong condemnation of Israeli violence against the Palestinians in Gaza has not affected relations between Washington and Ankara at all.
There is only one single issue that currently clouds the future of the fast-recovering Turkey-US alliance, and that is President Obama's pledge during the election campaign to recognize the "Armenian genocide" if elected, when American Armenians on April 24 commemorate the tragedy that befell Ottoman Armenians in 1915. It seems highly unlikely, however, that Obama will do so when Turkey and Armenia are soon expected to announce agreement on establishing diplomatic relations, the opening of borders and referral of the "genocide" question to an international commission of historians as proposed by Ankara in 2005.
