As a matter of fact, the e-memorandum released on April 27, 2007, by the politically powerful Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) that attempted to block Abdullah Gül from becoming president through a military-led legal intervention, as well as the downturn in the economy, have come after the year 2005, in a time when Ankara has halted democratic reforms and lost momentum on its drive for membership in the European Union.
Now we are faced with the global financial crisis that has naturally been affecting Turkey badly, too. Turkey's currency has slid to a record low against the dollar recently, due to simmering tensions in world stock markets and worries about the effect of the global financial crisis on the country's economy.
The Turkish lira fell to 1.79 against the dollar on Friday, after closing at 1.752 on Thursday, The Associated Press reported, adding, "Friday's record low was below the previous trough reached in March 2003, when the currency traded at around 1.77 against the dollar." The lira reached another record low of 1.804 against the dollar yesterday.
The currency's weakening position is likely to deepen concerns about Turkey's economy, which obliges the government to strike a new loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to limit the effects of the global crisis.
Industrial production, meanwhile, saw a record 21.3 percent decline in January yesterday compared to the same month last year, according to the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat).
Yet there has been no solid discussion of the relaunching of reforms. Local elections, due to be held on March 29 and seen as a referendum for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), have been impeding swift action in taking measures against the ailing economy.
There is an urgent necessity for the government and the opposition parties to join forces and introduce real and irreversible reforms shortly after the elections to save Turkey from hitting economic bottom.
The continuation of Turkey's growing credibility in the world, both economic and political, will also depend on policy makers' ability to pursue rational policies for healing the economic wounds parallel to political reforms, including a thorough overhaul of the military-dictated Constitution of 1982.
Implementation of the rule of law and reforms build up cohesion in the country and help Turkey move. Turkey's neglect of economic reforms carries the danger of social instability, a concern that is felt globally, too.
A Turkey in danger of social instability due to the downturn in the economy will naturally see its recently increased role on the international scene -- earned through its exercise of an active foreign policy in the Middle East, the Balkans and the Caucasus -- badly diminished.
It is also worth stressing that, contrary to increased concerns on the part of some Turkish and foreign analysts, Turkey's rapprochement with neighbors such as Iran and Syria is not seen by senior EU diplomats as a sign that NATO-member Turkey is drifting away from the West.
"Turkey is now an active player in its neighborhood. … Turkey is forging a more European method in the resolution of disputes in its neighborhood. The Turkish proposal for a stability pact in the Caucasus last summer following the Russian-Georgian crisis is an example of its adoption of a European-style method. That makes Turkey an asset for the EU," an Ankara-based EU diplomat stressed.
But Turkey's current task is to address the economic problems that could lead to social instability and make a fresh start on democratic reforms. This move is also essential for minimizing the effects of a possible prolonged recession in the US and Europe, with which Turkey does over 50 percent of its trade.
