Livni's Kadima got some 23 percent of the vote and 28 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This is not victory, but it is great success, indeed. Only six months ago public support for then-Kadima leader Ehud Olmert had hit a mere 3 percent. Just before Operation Cast Lead devastated Gaza, Netanyahu's Likud was scoring some 10 percent ahead of Kadima in public surveys. By turning to Livni at the last moment, did the Israelis choose the peace process, as some naively suggest? No. I think that what Israel chose is ungovernability and a prospective early election within a year or two.
Netanyahu has all the right to declare a victory "in the name of the Likud-led right." Netanyahu's natural ally, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, even exceeded expectations and became the third-largest player in Israeli politics, with 15 seats in the Knesset. The overall number of seats of the three religious parties, Shas, Jewish Home and United Torah Judaism, in the Knesset is now 19. These parties have made it clear in the past that they would prefer a coalition led by Netanyahu to any other. This gives Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu and the religious parties a total of 61 seats; already enough to form a government, but not enough to be able to rule. The four-member national-religious National Union Party will also be willing to support a Netanyahu coalition. But this does not add to the governability.
This doesn't mean that Kadima has another bloc of 55 deputies. Kadima does not lead a camp. In fact, Kadima is an absurdity in Israeli politics. Look at the political backgrounds of the newly elected 28 deputies of Kadima. Thirteen out of these 28 were former Likud deputies, including Livni. Only two have formerly been Labor deputies, and out of 13 deputies who became members of the Knesset only with Kadima, 12 are known for their former Likudnik positions. This means 25 more Likud-tied votes. Will Livni be able to keep her party intact in the face of the possible attraction of Likud's promising ministerial posts? I don't think so. The best option for Livni seems to be to consent to a coalition government under Netanyahu's leadership so as not to lose her party altogether.
Israeli coalition-forming behavior is unique. The 11 seats occupied by the two Arab and one Arab-Communist parties are not perceived as legitimate coalition partners. A coalition in which the Likud and Labor parties participate is regarded as a national unity government and is perceived as legitimate only under conditions of war or great crisis. This gives the smaller religious parties an upper hand in coalition bargaining, and they use this advantage to the end. In order to balance the religious parties, any coalition leader would want to have a coalition that is larger than the minimum winning coalition. A minimum winning coalition gives even the smallest coalition partner the power to blackmail the government. On the other hand, the more parties a coalition has, the harder it is to govern it. That is the dilemma that will be awaiting both Kadima's Livni and Likud's Netanyahu.
For the time being, we don't know for sure which party won the elections, but we are sure that Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is a great winner without which neither Kadima nor Likud can form a government. Lieberman is not only key to forming a government in Israel, he is also key to understanding the political inclinations of Israeli society: more and more radical and nationalist and more and more materialist and amoral.
As for Turkey's foreign policy considerations, I assume a workable Israeli government is better for Turkey and for the world. A peace-loving government that is unable to deliver what it promises is not what the world needs in Israel. A realistic Netanyahu government that promises only what it can deliver can be a more reliable and predictable partner in the Middle East.
