It is no secret that US President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority Congress are willing to recognize the Armenian genocide. President Obama issued several statements during his campaign indicating his intention to move forward in that direction. Some argue that running for office and "governing" are two different things. Although it is tempting to dismiss campaign declarations as electioneering, I think Obama is the kind of politician who actually means what he says. Unlike many of his predecessors, he is a true intellectual, and he probably had a well-formed idea of his own about the Armenian issue even before becoming a politician. There is therefore a genuine possibility that he will remain true to his word.
I used to think the real test would come fairly soon -- on April 24, when the White House traditionally issues a "Statement by the President on Armenian Remembrance Day." The president's statement consistently refers to the "tragedy and mass killings of Armenians" and carefully avoids use of the word "genocide." Given Obama's commitment to change all this, I still think there is a strong possibility Turkish-American relations may face a major crisis on April 24. For the last couple of weeks, however, it has no longer been the White House statement that worries me. There is now an even more pressing political event ahead of us because the sponsors of the Armenian genocide resolution in Congress are determined to bring this non-binding resolution to the floor. If they have their way, Turkish-American relations may unravel even earlier than April.
Complicating all this is the mounting sense of frustration in the US Congress with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The prime minister's sharp words against Israel during the Gaza crisis raised eyebrows and provided ammunition for those who have been long been warning about an Islamist shift in Ankara. Needless to say, the level of resentment is particularly high among the pro-Israel lobby. Some argue that Turkey has lost all its key supporters in Washington and that the Armenian lobby has now a unique window of opportunity to push its agenda.
The political calendar on the Turkish side is equally troubling. In case the Armenian genocide recognition resolution goes forward and Congress votes in favor of it before March 29, things will go from bad to worse. Turkey's much-anticipated local elections are scheduled for that date. One does not need to have much imagination to guess how Prime Minister Erdoğan would react to an Armenian genocide resolution just days before local elections in Turkey. There will be a nationalist explosion in Turkey, and it will be impossible for cooler heads to prevail. A series of retaliations starting with the recall of the Turkish ambassador and limitations on the use of Incirlik Airbase will follow.
Is there a way out of this ordeal? The short answer is "not likely." Short of some drastic steps, there is little Ankara can do to convince American lawmakers not to vote in favor of a non-binding resolution. Turkey can always play its "geostrategic" card and try to explain all the bad things that may happen in case things unravel. But the current dynamics in Washington will limit the effectiveness of this approach. The only other strategy worth trying is to take some concrete steps with Yerevan, such as opening the border and the opening of an embassy in the framework of a complete normalization of diplomatic relations. Unfortunately, given the state of Turkish domestic politics, neither of these pro-Yerevan openings appears realistic. In short, as things stand right now, we may very well be heading towards disaster in Turkish-American relations even before April 24.
