Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has set out to take over the mayoral posts in provinces regarded as strongholds of the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Democratic Society Party (DTP), is now paying full attention so as not to encounter a surprise in its own strongholds. Current Adana Mayor Aytaç Durak's resignation from the AK Party and his joining the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is annoying for the AK Party. We do not know whether Durak, who was elected mayor four times from four different parties, can be elected for the fifth time. We do not have enough information to analyze this yet. But it will certainly make things harder for the AK Party. The ruling party is also keeping an eye on the new period of the Felicity Party (SP) initiated by its new leader, Numan Kurtulmuş. It is difficult for the SP to challenge the AK Party. However, every single vote it gets will mean a decrease in the votes of the AK Party. Erdoğan now has to take all these weak possibilities into consideration. The decision whether to continue with Melih Gökçek in Ankara or not is among the toughest ones for Erdoğan. Gökçek, readying to win the mayoral post for the fourth time, is not a classic party member. There are even those who see Gökçek serving as a mayor from the AK Party as a coalition between the AK Party and Gökçek. Some circles around Erdoğan harshly criticize this situation. Erdoğan, on the other hand, can sacrifice nothing. In the end, Erdoğan has more justification to remain with Gökçek.
First of all, Erdoğan and Gökçek once shared the same fate; they were the heroes of the 1994 local elections. When Erdoğan gained victory in İstanbul, Gökçek also brought in a mayoral post for his party at the time, the Welfare Party (RP). Gökçek managed to divide the votes of the left and won the elections by a head as a strong candidate from the right. In the 2004 elections, making use of the AK Party's momentum, he was elected as mayor of Ankara by sweeping 49 percent of the vote, adding 9 percent to AK Party's overall 40 percent share of the vote. It is difficult to explain the success in three elections disregarding the Gökçek factor. It would be an error to compare Ankara and İstanbul or to compare Gökçek and Ali Müfit Gürtuna, who succeeded Erdoğan in İstanbul. In Erdoğan's shadow, Gürtuna held the post for one term, which was like he had won something in the lottery. Gökçek, on the other hand, has stood on his own two feet since 1994.
What happens if the AK Party does not remain with Gökçek? Gökçek declared that he will not do anything to upset his party even if he is not nominated. This means he will not be a candidate from another party. Doing the opposite would harm his career and risk his future. If Gökçek is nominated by another right-wing party and the AK Party runs in the elections with another candidate, it is the CHP who would win the elections. Gökçek cannot take responsibility for leaving Ankara to the left, either. A Gökçek who takes a back seat does not engage in election campaigns. If other rightist parties nominate strong candidates, CHP candidate Murat Karayalçın can take advantage of the division of the votes of the right. The Democratic Left Party (DSP) is not expected to nominate someone against Karayalçın. This could trouble the AK Party to a great extent. Even if it seems like a weak possibility, losing Ankara would mean surrendering one of its strongholds. The opposition's plan is to cause the AK Party to experience the 1989 syndrome; in 1989 the collapse of the Motherland Party (ANAP, now ANAVATAN) started with local elections. Losing metropolitan areas such as Ankara and Adana would lead to this syndrome.
The issue has another respect independent of the local elections. Gökçek is among the potential leaders of the center right. In fact the AK Party prevents Gökçek from taking part in such adventures by cooperating with him in Ankara. It would also be bad news for the ruling party if Gökçek presents new political projects after the local elections. Comparing Gökçek with Abdüllatif Şener would be a mistake as well. To sum up, Erdoğan would like not to fare worse in Ankara while going farther.
