Some recommendations are being made through private channels. Others are publicized, like the e-mail I recently received from the Brookings Institution's Martin Indyk, titled "Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President."
Turkey watchers in Washington are of course not immune to the urge and surge of policy recommendations. As former US Ambassador to Turkey Morton Abramowitz says in an article in The American Interest's next issue highlighting "The Turkish Portfolio," the problem is that "on the list of the remarkable array of foreign policy challenges President Obama will soon face, managing US-Turkish relations rarely appears." On the other hand, trouble in many geographical and functional areas where there are vital US interests "affects Turkish interests and engages Turkish influence. Turkey thus remains of great strategic importance to the United States," Abramowitz argues.
The official Turkish position concurs with this assessment. Stressing Turkey's strategic importance, high-level bureaucrats from Ankara have lately been visiting town one after another. Last week, Ambassador Feridun Sinirlioğlu, a deputy undersecretary of the Foreign Ministry, was here. He was followed by Undersecretary Ertuğrul Apakan of the Foreign Ministry this week. The Obama team does not meet with foreign officials during the transition period. But Ankara knows, in accordance with the principle of continuity of state, Bush administration officials have been preparing a Turkey portfolio for their successors. Turks try to explore and influence that portfolio. They want to convey Ankara's ideas, concerns and recommendations to the Obama team through the current administration.
Let's listen to Ambassador Abramowitz again: "Turkey today contributes in numerous constructive ways to international stability. In an era of diffusing power both countries should want to find ways to deepen relations and reduce abrasions. The most practical way to do that is through more regular high-level discussions, not frantic episodes of crisis management. … Given the growing complexity of the bilateral relationship and diminishing US influence, the Obama administration should review relations and all the thorny issues that attend them at an early time with top Turkish leaders," Abramowitz contends. I couldn't agree more. So, higher and political-level conversations should follow bureaucratic contacts.
The Washington Institute's Soner Çağaptay, speaking at a Rumi Forum event on Thursday titled "What Should President-elect Obama's Priorities be for Turkey?" recommended Obama include Turkey on the itinerary of his first trip to Europe. This would send a strong message to both Turkey and Europe that the new administration sees Turkey as part of Europe and that they will continue to support a full membership process that ensures liberal democratic values, which are also personally dear to Obama, not to mention providing a much-needed early meeting of minds and personal acquaintance between top leaders in Ankara and Washington.
Since it's the season of recommendations in Washington, allow me to humbly inject myself into the chorus (or should I say cacophony?) to shout out a few. It would be great if Obama, his vice president, Joe Biden, and/or Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly said a few positive things about Turkey in the early phases. It might ease some of the accumulated negativity vis-à-vis the US among the general Turkish public, who seem to be willing to turn a new page with the new administration. Such gestures would also help correct misconceptions, especially among traditional Turkish establishment circles, that the Obama team may prove cold and even dangerous for Ankara.
Many observers expect a Democrat-ruled White House and Congress would criticize Turkey more than its predecessors when it comes to human rights and democracy defects. If the first words that come out of the new mouths in Washington are positive, that might enhance the credibility of and ease reaction to the possible not-so-welcome subsequent moves. That said, one should not fall under the wrong impression that Turks will fall for every American package if it is delivered after or along with a bunch of flowers. For example, recognition of Armenian genocide allegations at a presidential level and/or through a congressional resolution may kill all the prospects for a good start.
President Obama is a transformational leader. And the key to success in his Turkey policy would be to understand the transformations in this country. Abramowitz correctly points out that "The disparity in power and regional relevance between the United States and Turkey is diminishing." Turks are no longer the Cold War's yes-men. Nor do they want to be treated as subcontractors. OK, the world may not be revolving around Turkey as some Turks would like to think and hope. But Turkey is at the epicenter of major issues for Washington such as Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia, Georgia and Middle-Eastern peace. Being a good listener, Obama should do a lot of listening when it comes to Turkey.
