Meanwhile, a financial lobby seeking to take advantage of this crisis has begun to take action; this lobby considers its own interests before the wider interests of everyone else, and to this end, it is forcing the government to take measures which will benefit it. To put it differently, the big circles of capital, which have been accustomed to growing larger and larger and making substantial amounts of money from state support and sponsorship since 1929, are trying to reap huge rewards from the crisis. Every financial crisis affects the real economy. The Turkish economy shrank by 5 percent in 1994 and 7 percent in 2001. At the time when the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power, three things were in Turkey's favor: There was a surplus of liquidity in the world, so capital began flowing in Turkey; exports were able to increase -- albeit not favoring domestic markets; and of course, the constant support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should also be remembered. We should note that the first factor is out of the question at the present time. The IMF is ready to extend support, but the question of who will benefit from such support is an important one.
The most visible effect of the crisis will be an increase in unemployment, currently over 10 percent, and as the real sector shrinks further, this will rise again. Some factories are already closing down. Naturally, every crisis has political and social consequences, and the ruling powers can't stay away from any of these consequences.
The crises of 1994 and 2001 were the result of destruction caused by financial sector to the rest of the economy. The ongoing crisis is a global one, and it hurts the real sector. A collapse in the non-financial sector will have great repercussions on people's living standards. The common view is this: Necessary measures should be taken to make sure that the real sector is not affected by the crisis. This is true, but what sectors should take priority in a prospective support plan? Large capital centers based in Istanbul? Small and medium-sized businesses? The large capital circles have asked the government to seal a deal with the IMF as soon as possible and according to reports, the deal will entail the provision of a loan in the amount of $25 billion. The circles which present themselves as the representatives of the real sector have also pushed for an IMF deal.
This is the picture they draw: The real sector is in a total debt of $120 billion. Sign a deal with the IMF so that you will be the guarantor of the already accrued and future debts of ours. Well, who did the real sector receive loans from? Foreigners or mustachioed Turks? The reality is that the debt of the real sector to foreigners is around 20-25 percent. In other words, Turks first took their money out of the country and then transferred these funds to the domestic markets, and they now ask the government to make a deal with the IMF so that it can serve as guarantor for their money. Let me paraphrase this request: "In the 2001 crisis, the financial sector caused a total loss of $50 billion for the state budget, they cleaned their own money out from their banks, and then they reimbursed this loss from the state. They did this, so we should be entitled to similar advantages and fund transfers." The figure they have in mind is around $25 billion; otherwise, they will shut down our businesses and lay off their workers.
There is a great game being played out there. Circles which have been ideologically opposed to the AK Party for a long time now resort to some a type of blackmail as if they had not already extensively benefited from this administration. The prime minister gave an account -- name by name -- of who had become much wealthier during his time in office. The real sector is important, but the transfer of funds, which proved to useless for the public, will not do anything but repeat the 2001 crisis; the people will have to pay the bill again.
Prime Minister Erdoğan should resist this pressure and stand firm in his position, which he has recently declared, saying: "The building not on fire should not be watered down. If you do so, you destroy a normal building. We do not have a dime for those who will seek to exploit the crisis."
