Well, as expected, this happened in August in a brief five-day war, and Georgia all but lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia, not only politically with their independence recognized by Russia, but also militarily with recently signed friendship and cooperation treaties with their protector Russia.The treaties, ratified by both the state Duma and the Federation Council of Russia and signed by President Dmitry Medvedev this week, above all ensure close military cooperation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia and a permanent presence of Russian forces in both regions.
The texts of both treaty documents are identically formulated and written. According to the explanatory notes, they are aimed at laying a legal groundwork for the presence and deployment of the Russian military in these two self-declared independent Caucasian republics in order to keep peace in the region and ensure security.
The documents state the obligations regarding mutual assistance if one of the parties is attacked. They also provide for joint protection of state borders and cooperation in fighting organized crime, international terrorism and drug trafficking.
During the ratification process in the Duma, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin announced that Russia would deploy two army brigades "of approximately 3,800 men each" in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. According to Karasin, the situation in the region continues to be tense: "Georgian special forces are deploying close to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba has stated that the number of Russian soldiers may in fact be bigger -- as much as is needed." He also confirmed that Russian border guards will be stationed on the separation line with Georgia and that the Abkhaz military will be integrated with the Russian armed forces.
Furthermore, Russia will provide training, weapons and commanding officers and permanently post additional air force and naval units to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In addition to the two army brigades, Russian border guards from the FSB security service will also deploy in both republics in unknown numbers. Taking into account the size of the local forces, it is estimated that the combined strength of the Russian and local forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be close to 30,000, which was the overall strength of the now shattered and weakened Georgian army.
As can be clearly seen from the treaties and the large presence of Russian forces, the independence and security of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is guaranteed by Russia.
On top of this, Abkhazia and South Ossetia also plan to apply for membership of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), as confirmed by the Abkhazian leader. "We will send membership applications to these organizations, and hope they will be accepted," Sergei Bagapsh, the Abkhaz leader, said at a joint news conference with South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity in Moscow.
The CIS is a regional organization comprising former Soviet republics. It has 12 members, including Georgia, which served notice of its withdrawal from it on Aug. 18, 2008, following the war with Russia. Its withdrawal becomes effective on Aug. 17, 2009. The CSTO is a security alliance comprising Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Russia.
With the signed treaties and eventual membership in the CIS and particularly the CSTO, Georgia should accept the fact that it has lost and will never be able to recover Abkhazia and South Ossetia, militarily or otherwise.
Hard to accept and digest, but it is a fact nevertheless.
