The conflict between the two has led to tensions between Turkey's Western allies, with the United States in the lead, and its increasingly important neighbor Russia. Neocon-inspired analysts in Washington argue that Turkey must either side with the US or against it, as they did in the days leading to the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. This is nonsense.Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952 and undoubtedly would abide by the decisions of the alliance. The US is surely Turkey's most important ally, and Turkey has a vital interest in having as close relations as possible with Washington. Turkey, however, did not blindly follow Washington even in the coldest days of the Cold War, and is much less likely to do so now. That Turkey will not side with US policies that are incompatible with its national interests was clearly demonstrated on March 1, 2003, when the Turkish Parliament refused the deployment of US troops on Turkish soil for the illegal invasion of Iraq.
Irrespective of which party is in charge, Ankara is today more likely than ever to adhere to a policy that is defined by its national interests, many of which are not compatible with US policies, particularly those pursued by the George W. Bush administration. Graham E. Fuller, a former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA, has made this point most succinctly: "Washington's policies are broadly and fundamentally incompatible with Turkish foreign policy interests in multiple arenas. … We had better get used to the fact that Turkey, strengthened by its popular democracy, is going to pursue its own national interests, regardless of Washington's pressure. Few Turks want it any other way." (LA Times, Oct. 19, 2007)
One of the arenas where Washington's policies are incompatible with Turkish foreign policy interests is Russia. As Fuller puts it: "Although there is some rivalry over the routing of Central Asian energy pipelines to the West -- whether via Russia or Iran and Turkey -- Ankara values its ties with Moscow, and opposes US efforts to bait the Russian bear in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe on NATO expansion and missile issues."
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the US policy has aimed at exploiting Russian weakness to help establish pro-Western regimes in Eastern Europe and wherever possible. The Bush administration has given priority to the expansion of NATO to include these countries, abrogated the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, and is intent on placing missile defenses in Russia's neighboring countries, to begin with the Czech Republic and Poland, supposedly to guard against an attack from Iran. These policies have led Russia to conclude that it is being encircled by the US. There is also little doubt that Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has found encouragement in Georgia's ever-closer ties with the US to start the military operation to regain control over South Ossetia, which had declared its independence from Tbilisi in 1992, and has ever since been increasingly assimilated into Russia. US policies that have provoked Russia are partly to blame for triggering Moscow's disproportionate military response and continued occupation of Georgia and the dangerous regional crisis that has ensued.
The next US administration would be well advised to reconsider its stance towards Moscow and adopt a policy that aims at engaging rather than isolating Russia. Russia surely does not have a Western regime and is definitely looking for ways to broaden its sphere of influence, but is not in any respect the "evil empire" the Soviet Union was. The West (including Turkey) needs Russia as much as Russia needs the West. Peace and stability in the world require that the two use diplomacy to resolve their differences.
Turkey's policy of establishing good relations, promoting economic interdependence with neighbors and using diplomacy and negotiation as the main tool to resolve differences -- whether dealing with the Greeks, Syrians, Iranians or Russians -- serves Turkey's interests, and surely also those of its allies, whether the US, the EU or Israel. One glaring failure in Turkey's policy is, however, the lack of diplomatic ties and open borders with Armenia. Its well-intentioned Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Pact can succeed only if Ankara can normalize relations with Armenia, and thereby also help Azerbaijan and Armenia make peace. Yerevan seems to be more ready than ever for reconciliation with its neighbors.
