Surprising developments are going on in the Middle East in the wake of [Yasser] Arafat's death. Acting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who has not yet been formally elected president, has changed all the parameters in the 70-year Palestinian cause. Good or bad? He is making the changes though. In my opinion, after the death of Arafat, the presidential candidate choosing Kuwait as one of the first countries, in the several visits he was to embark upon abroad, and furthermore, apologizing to the Kuwaiti people because they [Palestinian leadership] supported the Saddam regime during the Gulf War, are developments as important as the regime change in Iraq. It is as dangerous as the fall of Fallujah, which tore our hearts apart.
In fact, if the apology had been directed to the Kuwaiti state and people, this would have been viewed under the framework of "Arab solidarity." Another way out, and that is definitely so, would be apologizing to Washington and this would infuriate the Palestinian grassroots, because the Palestinian Troika might ultimately resort to making many concessions, meaning, Fallujah fell resisting. Jerusalem might fall without resistance.
The Troika comprising of Abbas, Ahmed Qureia and Farouk Kaddoumi had made a more surprising move before. These are developments that cannot be dealt with without following the general developments being experienced in the Middle East. Egypt, after contacting Kuwait and Syria said it could "mediate" in finding ways of solving the disagreements with Israel. Afterwards, Abbas visited Damascus and suggested that Palestine and Syria should form a united front in meetings that will be held with Israel. To put it plainly, this means going under Syria's control and abandoning the Egyptian control. Abbas, on the one hand is sending friendship messages to Kuwait under the control of Washington, and on the other hand is still trying to maintain good relations with Damamas. This attitude of this candidate, who consults with American advisers before making any move, seems rather strange. Maybe since Abbas's mental ability cannot be questioned, it should be assumed that behind the scenes, [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad, has moved towards the American line.
The inequality on the Israeli side is also active. It is certain that all the arguments used in [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon's unilateral pullout plan and turning the wall into the final border, were out of "coercion." Nowadays, his decision to get rid of "uncompromising" political parties such as Shas and Sinui, and forming a coalition government with the Labor Party arouses the idea that a decision, we cannot guess, will be presented to the Israeli Parliament in the coming days. Besides the decision that some jailed Palestinians will be released as a goodwill gesture for the upcoming Palestinian presidential elections, news that Israel has accepted that elections be held in East Jerusalem, Gaza Strip and West Bank, as it was in 1999, have turned the "Sharon image" upside down in minds.
Let it not be misunderstood. With Arafat out of the equation all problems have not been solved magically. Israel still continues bombarding Gaza with tanks and warplanes, children are still dying and rockets are still being launched. What is interesting and is worth being pursued is the reality that while nothing is happening in Iraq, there is extreme activity in the Israel-Palestine-Syria triangle, occurring in an extremely silent manner.
December 13, 2004
