As usual, this significant study contained interesting results both for the transatlantic community and Turkey. While these new European leaders have declared their willingness to work with the United States, the primary foreign policy issue in the United States -- the war in Iraq -- is largely absent from the transatlantic agenda, and the prospects for cooperation in two major areas where the United States and Europe are working together -- Afghanistan and Iran -- remain uncertain. As expected, energy dependence and international terrorism were among the threats by which Americans and Europeans felt most likely to be personally affected. Americans responded that they felt most likely to be impacted by energy dependence (88 percent), an economic downturn (80 percent) and international terrorism (74 percent). Europeans felt most likely to be personally affected by global warming (85 percent), energy dependence (78 percent) and international terrorism (66 percent). The impact of global warming has most felt in Central Anatolia this year, the Turkish sensitivity to global warming has increased as well. The number of Turks who expressed concern about global warming has almost doubled.
Turkish feelings toward the United States and European Union continued to cool. On a 100-point “thermometer” scale, Turkish “warmth” toward the United States dropped from 20 degrees in 2006 to 11 degrees in 2007, and toward the European Union from 45 degrees to 26. Turkish feelings toward Iran also cooled over the past year from 43 to 30. Turkish pessimism became apparent given the responses to the question of whether Turkey would eventually join the European Union. Europeans thought it far more likely that Turkey will eventually join the EU (56 percent of Europeans believe Turkey will join), compared with just 26 percent of Turkish respondents. Turkish support for NATO has continued its decline since 2004, with Turks divided almost equally -- 35 percent of respondents (a decline of 9 percentage points from last year) agreed that NATO is still essential for their country’s security, while 34 percent said it is no longer essential and 31 percent did not know or refused to answer.
The Iran nuclear issue also was part of the survey. When asked what is likely to happen should Iran acquire nuclear weapons, 83 percent of Americans and 68 percent of Europeans believed that other countries in the Middle East would decide that they should have nuclear weapons as well. Eighty-two percent of Americans and 68 percent of Europeans also believed that Iran would supply nuclear weapons to terrorists. In contrast, 43 percent of Americans and 52 percent of Europeans believed that Iran would use nuclear weapons for defensive purposes only. Turkish respondents stood out on the issue of how to deal with a nuclear Iran. While 47 percent of Americans favored to increase pressure on Iran with military force as an option, only 6 percent of Turks responded positively to this option. Also, a more than 10 percent difference exists between European averages and those of Turks on the option to accept a nuclear Iran.
In many respects the Turkish results are concerning, especially our suspicious and negative outlooks toward foreigners, be they Chinese, Russian or American. Apart from ourselves we seem to have little affinity toward others. We are certainly going through a period of transition and these are times when our outlook toward the world beyond us will be tested.
