Yet it is a strange election. Despite the heated messages of political leaders and large-scale rallies in many cities, it still does not have the traditional air of excitement typically associated with our general elections. There are a number of reasons, but I think one of the most important ones is that it takes place in the middle of the summer. The summer heat of Anatolia is relentlessly beating the constant push to create political excitement. Farmers and villagers are busy working their land. They are laboring hard to beat the negative impact of global warming. Urban Turks are somewhat more motivated as all of our cities have been invaded by a multitude of flags, banners and placards which constantly remind them of the election. Party busses cry out party songs and reassure their partisans that they are present and strong prior to the election. Still, there is something different about this election. It appears that most Turks have already formed their opinions about the election. They have followed the political crisis from their TV screens. They also consider this election a prelude to the presidential election, which has already started to dominate the campaign.
This election is also different as the outcome is somewhat predictable. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is very likely to win the election with 40 percentage points. The closest party is 20 percentage points behind. What is uncertain is how many parties will enter Parliament and what majority the AK Party will enjoy in Parliament. A good friend recently explained the situation with a football league analogy where the leading team has distanced itself beyond reach from the other teams. Such a football league is generally boring. In his words, “It is already certain who will become the champion.” In such a league what excites people more is the question of which team will be relegated. I believe the question of which party or parties will not be able to make it into Parliament is busying the electorate more than who will win it. Apart from the ruling party as well as the main opposition party, all others are nervous about the 10 percent threshold quota. Until the results come in on the evening of July 22, that tension and uncertainty is likely to continue.
Also, the Turkish electorate is no longer dependent on traditional Turkish political campaign methods. As our politics is increasingly using more modern means, the electorate increasingly tends to form opinions through modern means of communication. TV, Internet and smart campaign brochures are increasingly replacing traditional coffeehouse speeches or village gatherings.
All in all, this election, while being very important for a number of reasons, will be registered as one of the least exciting elections in Turkish history. The real excitement will start on the evening of July 22 and the pending presidential election. Maybe the real question of this election is not who should form the next government. The real question is whether the post-election period will mark the further opening and liberalization of our democracy or the continuation of an authoritarian democracy.
