Naturally, the thing people are most curious about is which parties will enter Parliament by surpassing the 10 percent election threshold and which party will garner what percentage of the vote. To satisfy the curiosity of our readers, I'd like to share the results of five surveys conducted recently. According to the results obtained by polling firm GENAR, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) will get 40.9 percent of the vote in the July 22 elections and enter Parliament with 317 deputies, the Republican People's Party (CHP) with 142 deputies, garnering 22.1 percent of the vote, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will get 10.8 percent and win 56 seats. The independent candidates will win 35 seats with 7.2 percent of the vote. It is not difficult to guess that most of them will be the candidates of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party.
The results of another surveying firm, ANAR, are as follows: the AK Party will win 325 seats with 43 percent of the vote, the CHP 143 seats with 23 percent, the MHP 53 seats with 11 percent and independents will win 29 seats with 6 percent of the vote.
SONAR's results show that the AK Party will win 274 seats with 40.5 percent of the vote, the CHP 100 seats with 20.03 percent, the MHP will win 62 seats with 12.2 percent and the Young Party (GP) will win 42 seats with 11.06 percent of the vote. While the results revealed by all other surveying firms point out that only three parties will enter Parliament, the SONAR survey estimates that the GP will also pass the threshold.
The results of KAMAR indicate that the AK Party will get 39.8 percent of the vote and win 317 seats and that the CHP will win 156 seats with 23.6 percent. The survey estimates that in the event the MHP, which is at the threshold now with 9.8 percent, surpasses the election barrier, it will win 48 seats and that independent candidates will win 29 seats with 6.4 percent of the vote.
I'd like to end the topic here by saying that some person-specific surveys, the results of which have not been disclosed to the public, envisage a three-party Parliament accompanied by independent deputies after July 22. Also, all surveys indicate an AK Party government after the elections.
At this point, the fundamental question that perpetually suggests itself is what determines voter tendencies. The findings of research company VERITAS provide the answer to this question. According to the results of a VERITAS survey conducted by talking face-to-face with 13,794 people in 27 provinces, which you will read about in today's issue of Today's Zaman, the party leaders play a major role in the decision of the voter. A record 83.2 percent of participants say that the person leading a party is either "very important" (43.1 percent) or "important" (40.1 percent.) Those saying that it is "not important at all" number 3.8 percent, those saying "not important" amount to 7.7 percent and those saying that it "doesn't matter" account for 5.3 percent.
Party ideologies are also of importance for voters. For 38.5 percent of them, the party ideology is "very important" in terms of their decisions; 46.3 percent find it "important." While the rate of those saying that it is "not important at all" is as low as 2.7 percent, 5.5 percent think it "not important," and 7.2 percent say it "doesn't matter."
As for the candidates, 25.8 percent of respondents think that the candidates nominated by the parties are "very important"; 44.8 percent say they are "important"; 4.5 percent think candidates are "not important at all"; those finding them "not important" total 9.7 percent; and those saying they "don't matter" stand at 15.2 percent.
Parties' past successes and failures also appear to be important factors in voters' preferences. The survey reported that 33.6 percent find past deeds "very important," while 46.2 percent find them "important." Those saying they are "not important at all" amount to 3.9 percent; 6.1 percent say they are "not important"; and finally 10.2 percent think they "don't matter."
The research has revealed that voters also pay attention to campaign promises. While 32 percent of them find the promises "important" in making their preferences, 19.5 percent see them as "very important." Those considering them "not important" total 20.2 percent, while 15.3 percent maintain they are "not important at all." Some 12.6 percent think that they "don't matter." In the end, however, campaign promises are not as determining a factor as party leaders and ideologies.
Intra-familial decisions also play a role on the decision of voters. While 15.4 percent find intra-familial decisions "very important," 31.9 percent say they are "not important." A full 20.8 percent believe they are "not important," 15.4 percent hold that they are "not important at all" and 16.6 percent assert that they "don't matter." This in turn proves that family heads still wield great influence over the preference of voters.
Another interesting result is that the influence of the media on voter preferences is not as strong as is believed. While only 9.6 percent say that the information they obtain from the media is "very important," 23 percent claim it is "important." Those saying that it is "not important at all" amount to 28.6 percent, and those saying that it is "not important" number 24.4 percent.
