The conservatives represented by the Union for Popular Movement (UMP) will obtain approximately 80 percent of the seats in the French National Assembly, which means that the neoliberal economic views recommended by Sarkozy will rule over France in the next few years. This very comfortable majority allows Nicolas Sarkozy to realize the reforms he has promised during the presidential election campaign. But the first round of the French general elections has other meanings, too. First of all, we should stress that only 61 percent of the French people (the lowest rate under the Fifth Republic) voted this time, while the turnout was phenomenal in the presidential elections. This showed that the electorate considered this election of secondary importance. This signifies that the French semi-presidential regime is slowly changing and the political system of France beginning to look more and more like the US one.
In other words political leaders have become more important than their parties. But the checks and balances of the US system don’t exist in France. The president, the parliament and the government will be from the same political family, which means that a unique view program will easily guide the whole system. This will not let the opposition play an important role in the political process. It’s surprising to find out how all this is very similar to Turkey’s current situation.
This state of affairs can incite the French opposition to pursue its democratic fight outside of parliament. When neoliberal laws are introduced, different parts of society will show their disapproval in the streets as they did in the past. Many of Segolene Royal’s supporters chose not to vote. This is not only the result of their fatalism, but also an indicator that they think opposition to Sarkozy’s policies will not be represented by the Socialist Party anyway.
In other words, immigrants, students and people with economic problems have decided to resist Sarkozy’s reforms using other ways than simply casting votes, as they think Sarkozy’s reformist practices are the result of a discriminatory mentality.
Absolute power can be beneficial for individuals or institutions. However this is the worst thing that can happen to a political party, because a government’s movement capacity is subject to domestic and international conjunctures. Facing the rapid change in domestic and international conditions, leaders and parties with absolute power can fail. These conditions can cause negligence regarding promises made before the elections.
In that case absolute victory in one election can lead to an absolute defeat in the next election. It’s difficult to govern a country with a weak opposition. Some people enjoy seeing the political failure of absolute power, but this can also mean total failure on national and global policies, as we have witnessed in the case of President George W. Bush’s America. The loser is not only the leader or its political movement, but the whole country.
The first barrier Sarkozy will have to face is the future of European integration. He is tough, radical and hasty, but he can’t continue to threaten everyone with leaving as he did during the G-8 summit. One day one of his counterparts may say to him, “OK, you may go.”
It’s obvious that a very risky period is opening before France.
