soldiers martyred by landmines in the Southeast and the possibility of a military operation in northern Iraq along with other recent events that could strengthen the likelihood of this possibility. Naturally, a country that feels its security is under threat has the right to take any sort of precaution it deems necessary (even if it may mean war). This is a responsibility of that state as well as it being a right, and it is a necessity for its sovereignty. However, if Turkey makes a rash decision in handling its long-term terrorism problem, particularly after a provocative attack, it could manipulate Turkey’s domestic politics and turn the system of international relations in which it belongs upside down.
In fact, extraordinary events in Turkey like this have been taking place for quite some time. We shouldn’t deem this incident as separate from developments in northern Iraq, the US-Iran row, the current position of the PKK terrorist organization or the domestic political turmoil in Turkey. There have been interesting recent developments in our country that give the impression that this is a place where government intelligence agencies can do anything they like and of a battlefield where dark forces try to manipulate these developments.
A general who knows all of Iran’s nuclear secrets (Asgari) was abducted while in Turkey. He was said to be in Europe, but his whereabouts and what has become of him remain unknown. Following this incident, a plane crashed in the Black Sea region and a Pakistani general and a British citizen were found. Later, it was said Turkish intelligence had been following the two.
Last week, a suicide bombing occurred in Ulus. Upon the attack, Turkey quickly turned its attention to PKK terrorism. They put plans for a northern Iraq operation back onto the agenda and began expediting legal procedures to increase the police’s authority.
A few days ago, a train on its way from Tehran to Syria became the target of a bizarre bombing. The train was derailed as a result of the attack, said to have been perpetrated by the PKK. In the containers of the derailed cars were a great number of rockets, a rocket launch pad, hundreds of assault rifles and hundreds of boxes of ammunition. There is no reason to think that the PKK derailed this specific train by coincidence. It is obvious that whoever is behind the attack took action based on acquired intelligence or a solid order. What is strange about the whole thing is that the seized arms were made in the US and that Iran keeps saying that it has nothing to do with the event.
It is also interesting that all these events coincide with a period during which highly organized and highly attended rallies (in a fashion unprecedented in Turkey’s history) are being held, Turkey is being compelled to go to elections after being kept from electing its president as a result of an e-memorandum issued on the Web site of the General Staff on April 27 and a subsequent court ruling, and a period during which attempts are being made to reshape the political sphere as the country heads for elections.
We should note that the modus operandi that put the e-memorandum on the General Staff’s Web site to prevent Parliament from electing a president close to the AK Party and that organized the rallies are the same, and that the spokesmen of this way of thinking (retired generals) constantly remark that Turkey should drop out of NATO and join new alliances.
We cannot think of these mysterious events (I don’t even want to guess how many more are not known by the public) as separate from the possibility of Turkey changing its international axis -- which has the potential of shaking the international balance of power at its roots -- which is openly spoken of by some neo-nationalist groups.
At this point, the position Turkey adopts toward northern Iraq possesses great importance. It seems to me that the scenario of an operation into northern Iraq that frequently appears in the limelight with the claim that it will resolve the problem of the terrorism we have long lived with is part of a greater plan, particularly before elections that will elect a new parliament, government and president. Neither the US’s violation of Turkish airspace nor its decision to hand over the security of northern Iraq to peshmergas is playing into the hands of the proponents of a democratic and political solution.
This much is certain: The magnitude of a possible northern Iraq operation, which will cause a domino effect of unwanted side-effects (which might be desired by some), will be very different from those carried out in the past. Above all, there is an army of 100,000 peshmergas in northern Iraq today, which is a difference.
Furthermore, an intervention into any part of Iraq will mean directly positioning the US, the occupying force in the country, as a force against us. Such an intervention, rather than being a military operation, will rapidly erupt into a war, the limits of which cannot be predicted. In that case, the process of EU membership will end. That is, an intervention into northern Iraq will have consequences and effects on our internal politics and international relations that will be far more serious than those of a simple operation.
Therefore, Turkey doesn’t have the liberty to intervene in northern Iraq unless it is willing to put all its established international relationships at stake. In the event such an intervention does take place, an intervention that will have to target the occupation of all of northern Iraq, then it means Turkey has risked thoroughly tearing itself from its system of Western alliances. And the impact of this on our domestic policies will result in sacrificing our democracy.
