Gul’s candidacy seems to have raised eyebrows in some circles who would not in any case accept anyone from the AK Party as president. It is best to remind them that Parliament is electing a president for the nation, and not an ideological representative for the state elite.Gul’s candidacy proved the AK Party’s and Prime Minister Erdoğan’s political maturity. They did not risk the political and economic stability of Turkey, which they, to a great extent, themselves had built over the last four years. It seems that advice coming from circles sensitive to economic and political stability as well as people’s support for Erdoğan as prime minister was effective in the decision of the party. This is a decision that should be hailed as a victory of a rational decision-making process in Turkish politics, which is a rare occurrence.
A month ago, Erdoğan’s options were analyzed in this column as follows: “By nominating someone else at the last moment, he (Erdoğan) will appear a person confident enough to reject an opportunity to become president, someone prepared to compromise and a man who believes in teamwork. This would certainly leave his opponents out-maneuvered and add to his party’s strength in the upcoming general elections. … But to face the criticism that he would not dare to be a candidate over the anticipated reactions of the ‘dynamic forces,’ he could nominate someone from the party whose wife wears a headscarf.
“This brings up Abdullah Gül as the strongest contender for the top job. Gül is a good candidate capable of standing against Arınç. … Gül’s election may also boost AK Party morale, increasing its electoral performance in November. And a headscarf-wearing first lady would be a perfect apology for being unable to resolve the issue at universities.”
This result was made possible by the fact that the AK Party had the second and even third man in the party ranks. With the exception of Bayar and Menderes in 1950, this has never been the case in Turkish politics. Turkish leaders have never liked to have someone nearby who is capable of succeeding them. The AK Party proved that the presence of a balance of power among the top leaders in the party ensures a rational decision-making process with group thinking. Furthermore this also widens options available to the party in critical moments.
That enabled Erdoğan to pursue a strategy of uncertainty throughout the process. By playing with his candidacy Erdoğan led the opposition to intensify its objection to his presidency and resort to inventing such unconstitutional arguments like the one that the Parliament needs 367 members to convene to elect the president. As was well calculated, all these attempts by the opposition at twisting the law with a political end have strengthened the AK Party’s public support and increased its appeal among the center-right voters who are fed up with the CHP’s power within the civilian-military bureaucracy.
By not opting for Cankaya, Erdoğan demonstrated that he intends to remain in power as prime minister and campaign for the next general elections. In fact the AK Party group meeting on Tuesday where Gul’s candidacy was announced was also the occasion to launch the campaign for the general elections. It would not be a surprise if the government now decides to bring the election date forward to late July or August of this year.
