His main rival, the socialist Segolene Royal, had 25.7 percent of the vote. Apparently for the first round of the elections the French people has chosen to vote for the candidate they want most, and it is Nicolas Sarkozy.The spectacular electoral turnout is the first important subject for debate. The process of the referendum organized for the EU constitution has probably increased the French people’s political sensitivity. Every political party is now saying that their propaganda efforts helped the politicization of society. It may be true, but we should not forget that provocative rhetoric of Sarkozy has also contributed largely to this.
What we saw on television during the announcement of the results reminded us of what we usually observe in the US. On the one hand republicans waiting for their leader’s speech with flags and patriotic songs, and on the other democrats waiting with their families and children -- and of course with Royal’s son himself, who played an important role during his mother’s campaign. The comments too were similar to the bipolarity of the US: conservatives who talk about the truths directly and harshly, and in front of them socialists, who prefer to talk about the future and projects. The common theme of all this is the “change” that is badly needed in France. In fact the French people have voted in favor of the change.
Maybe that’s the reason for Jean-Marie Le Pen’s worst result in a very long time. It is not certain that this result demonstrates that the right-wing extremism in France is declining. A lot of people think that Sarkozy already represents Le Pen’s ideas. Besides arguments, scandals and rhetoric of all parties during the campaign were much more populist than in preceding elections in France, and that’s why we can say that the French people have made a choice between different kinds of populism.
What happens next? The first answer to that question came from Sarkozy. According to the conservative leader, the second round’s result will be determined by the cleavages of ideas. This cleavage will not contain a profound philosophical divergence, just as it does not in the divergence between the Republicans and the Democrats in the US. The difference lies in the solutions proposed to the people in order to resolve their concrete problems, such as in the US, where the debate about abortion influences political choices. When Sarkozy mentioned the battle of ideas, in order to make things more difficult for Royal, he also talked about the workers, pensioners, students and disabled, which gave him the opportunity to embrace large segments of society. Royal has chosen a language that can reassure those who still have doubts about her. Even if her rival wants to emphasize equality, civic rights and the rule of law, it is easier for Royal to convince people about these subjects as she prefers to talk through inequalities.
In the second round people will vote for their “second choice” or against the “unwanted.” At this point the target is the electorate of the smaller parties and the undecided masses. This gives a key role for Francois Bayrou and Le Pen. The latter’s support for Sarkozy wouldn’t mean a great change in his party’s policies. But Bayrou’s support could cause some difficulties.
Apparently the French people will prefer the change Sarkozy proposes. “Everyone will find their place in a new French dream,” as he puts it. But will France find a place in the new world? This depends on which dream they want to see Turkey.
