By creating the first Shiite-led state in the Arab world since the 12th century, the US ignited aspirations among some 150 million Shiites in the greater Middle East. Not surprisingly the big winner in all this has been Iran, the Shiite regional superpower. The irony in Washington helping its Shia nemesis was well captured by Zalmay Khalilzad, the departing US ambassador in Iraq. In a speech he gave in Washington last year Mr. Khalilzad said, “I used to joke with my Iranian counterpart that Tehran ought to be much more helpful to us, because we solved their Taliban problem in Afghanistan and their Saddam problem in Iraq. Best of all, we did this free of charge.” The joke didn’t go over well with the Saudis in the audience. In a speech last year in New York, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said it “seems out of this world” that US forces would protect allies of Iran who are building a power base in Iraq. “Now we are handing over Iraq to Iran without reason.”
One can understand the Saudi frustration. Until very recently Iran was calling all the shots in the Middle East. In addition to its quest for nuclear power, Tehran was in the driver’s seat in the most crucial issue of the Arab world: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ahmadinejad’s seemingly irrational anti-Israel rhetoric and his ownership of the Palestinian cause had in fact a very rational goal: to neutralize the Arab-Sunni reaction against the rise of Iran. With its patronage over Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran not only challenged Israel (and Washington) in Lebanon and Palestine, but also masterfully diverted attention from its own nuclear agenda. In the meantime Tehran continued to exert maximum influence in Iraq.
But now Saudi Arabia is back. Traditionally inclined to pursue quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy, Riyadh is now flexing its political muscles in order to curb Iran’s regional influence. The turning point seems to have been Vice President Cheney’s visit to the kingdom a couple of months ago. Shortly after Cheney’s visit came the declaration that Washington was sending a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf, followed by a declaration that American forces would arrest and kill Iranian agents active in Iraq. Combined with the Bush administration’s decision to send 21,000 more troops to Iraq, all these actions had a clear message for Iran: don’t mess with Iraq. For its part, Saudi Arabia returned America’s favor by increasing its oil production, sending the price of oil down.
More importantly, the most assertive sign that the Saudis are serious about curbing Iran’s influence in the Middle East came on the Palestinian front. By summoning clashing Palestinian factions to Mecca for make-or-break talks to form a unity government last month, the Saudis wielded their prestige and financial clout to reassert Arab ownership of the Palestinian issue. Similarly dynamics were at play in Lebanon where Riyadh’s support bolstered Fouad Siniora’s Sunni government against Hezbollah’s effort to topple it. Both of these recent developments in Palestine and Lebanon were in fact clashes between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And at least for now, Riyadh emerged victorious.
This more assertive attitude adopted by Riyadh has provoked anxieties in Tehran. Iran now clearly sees Saudi Arabia as the leader of an Arab front that is eagerly working with Washington against Shiite interests. Despite such tension between Riyadh and Tehran, one thing remains certain: Saudi Arabia is against an American attack on Iran. Riyadh has little interest in open military confrontation because Iran would certainly retaliate against US interests across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, an American attack on Iran would significantly increase the domestic popularity of the regime and further inflame anti-Americanism across the Islamic world. The results would be very detrimental for America’s Sunni-Arab allies such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Lebanon. This is precisely why Riyadh is ultimately in favor of bilateral talks between Washington and Tehran. If this Saturday’s meeting between Ahmadinejad and King Abdullah found a way to kick-start a strategic dialogue between Tehran and Washington, this will be his greatest feat of all for Riyadh. As I said, Saudi Arabia is back in the region. The question is where is Turkey?
