I am referring to Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Although the popular revolutions have not been completed successfully, even Syria can be considered within this context. On the other hand, Yemen and Bahrain, which are exhibiting popular movements inspired by the Arab Spring, are the exceptions. Nevertheless, it is impossible not to see the tremors in regional and global balances created by the Arab Spring, which continued successfully until tossed on the bloody Assad wall in Syria in March 2011.
Since their interests were not protected during the changes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the countries that were the winners in the old system established an exaggerated roadblock in Syria. Russia, China and Iran are exerting their best efforts to ensure that the Syrian regime does not go as easily as the Tunisian, Egyptian and Libyan regimes, and even if it does not go at all, they see the Syrian regime as a precious friend and ally for themselves. These countries are warding off all international attempts to put the Assad regime in a tight corner, and they are offering it all sorts of solidarity, including supplying weapons and ammunition. A major transportation route for the friends of the Assad regime is the Eastern Mediterranean. Iranian warships passed through the Suez Canal after a hiatus of 32 years and traveled to the Eastern Mediterranean for the first time immediately after the Hosni Mubarak regime, which was known to be hostile to Iran, was destroyed. The start and exacerbation of the popular uprising in Syria has given Iran's interest in this region added vitality. In recent weeks, Iran has sent its warships once again to this region and made a show of power at the naval base in Tartus, Syria's port city. Of course, Iran was not the first country that staged a show of power. Russia's only aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov had anchored at the same port for some time in what amounted to a show of solidarity with the Assad regime.
Apparently, the East Mediterranean constitutes one of the major fields where a new style cold war between the Eastern and Western blocs is being reshaped according to the conflicting interests in Syria. And in this way, it is not hard to find some countries that have a foot in both camps. As you know, Russia's commercial (particularly in the offshore banking sector that functions as a black money laundering mechanism) and military relations with the Greek Cypriots as well as its existing and refreshed ties with Syria are particularly striking. Although it is a member of the European Union, the Greek Cypriots are not complying with the military and political embargo the EU imposed on the Assad regime. Greek Cyprus forms a transit route for the weapons Russia sends to Syria. We know that Greek Cyprus recently allowed a Russian vessel carrying weapons to Syrian to use its territorial waters. God knows how many more unknown moves Greek Cyprus has undertaken for solidarity with Assad. What I really want to know is why the EU is silent or tolerant about the Greek Cypriots who publicly violate the EU's embargo. They should know that this weird silence creates serious doubts in the international community about their sincerity with regard to their embargo on the Assad regime.
The Eastern Mediterranean has turned not only into a sea where Russian and Iranian warships frequently sail for solidarity with Syria, but also to an area of serious geopolitical competition due to the extraordinary strategic relations Israel has developed with the Greek Cypriots. The strategic relations between Israel and the Greek Cypriots have gradually improved since the early 2000s, and they have evolved to allow the use by Israeli airplanes of the Greek Cypriots' airspace during military exercises. Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even asked the Greek Cypriot administration to permit Israel to establish a military base in Cyprus during his recent visit. Despite Turkey's opposition, Israel and Greek Cyprus continue to conduct joint oil and natural gas exploration projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, which further raises the existing tension in the region. Considering further the fact that the Greek Cypriots gave a military base in Baf (Paphos) to France, which openly competes with Turkey in the incident-laden region, we can safely assert that both the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus have acquired a refreshed strategic importance in the eyes of the actors in the region.
The Eastern Mediterranean has turned into an area of competition among global powers due to the developments in the areas surrounding it, and it has shifted toward become a platform for friction between Turkey and Israel because of the already tense Turkish-Israeli relations. Following the deterioration of its ties with Turkey, particularly after it killed nine Turkish citizens aboard the vessel Mavi Marmara, Israel moved closer to Greece and Greek Cyprus. Israel uses the Greek airspace in its military exercises, and Russia is seeking to boost its clout in the same region largely using Greece and Greek Cyprus, which are EU members, and these developments send alarming signals to everyone concerned about these odd international alliances.
To sum up this complicated picture in the Eastern Mediterranean where we can expect increased tension, we can say the following: (1) Turkey, which has more than 40,000 troops in Cyprus, the Greek Cypriots, Greece and largely the EU are in an ever-increasing competition in the Eastern Mediterranean. (2) France, which has always been seeking to increase its influence in the entire Mediterranean as well as in Mesopotamia and Levant countries, is in a serious competition with Turkey over the Eastern Mediterranean. (3) Israel is getting closer to Greece and Greek Cyprus as it is shying away from Turkey, and it is giving the impression that it is establishing a sort of Israeli-Orthodox alliance because of its special ties with these countries with which Russia is also very friendly. (4) Iran does not want to lose Syria, to which it attaches a great importance as regards its regional domination and Shiite expansion goals and with which it has maintained an uninterrupted alliance for 32 years, and just like Russia, it seeks to make its presence felt by setting sail to the Eastern Mediterranean. This naturally worries Israel as it does not want Iran to be a threat closer to its shores, which in turn adds a contentious Israel-Iran dimension to the competition over the Eastern Mediterranean.
I know all this may sound complicated or intricate, but there is more: While it competes with Iran, Israel also has interests that overlap with those of Iran as it pursues similar policies with Russia and Greek Cyprus, which side with Iran concerning Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. In other words, although it may appear to be in conflict with the countries of the Eastern block that have been reshaped based on the developments in Syria over the Eastern Mediterranean, it is in serious cooperation with some of these countries. Thus, the Eastern Mediterranean has become the locus of a multi-sided and dangerous geopolitical competition in the wake of the Arab Spring developments, and its strategic value in world politics is on the rise. Therefore, the strategic value of Cyprus for the parties to this issue has increased many times more compared to 10 years ago. Although many won't like to hear it, it would be more realistic to assert in the light of these developments that it is now more unlikely that a solution to the Cyprus issue will be found.
