Kodak became one of the world’s most successful companies, using its knowledge of chemical processes and deep understanding of consumers. Its assets, physical and intellectual, were in chemicals, and the end product was imaging. What Kodak failed to appreciate was how fast the digital revolution would make chemical photography a thing of the past. Kodak’s competitive advantage was decidedly not in computer chips, memory and software, but the photography industry moved to the digital world in short period of time. Large chemical factories became redundant as cameras went digital, eschewing the need for film. The story of Kodak illustrates perfectly how the future affects business. Kodak was a master of the photography business, not a master of the future.
The future creates a paradox. If you become a master in one field, you might destroy your future. What you have to do for the future is much different than what you have to do for the present.
Everyone is interested in the future, and we want to know what will go right and what will be a disaster. The future is so complex, and it is difficult to forecast. According to futurist Eric Garland, author of the “Future, Inc.: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What’s Next,” it is possible to have some insight into the future. There is a way to understand the trends that will change your life by evaluating the best forecasts made by experts in their fields and putting them together in compelling scenarios depicting multiple ways the world might look like in the future.
Systems thinking, a methodology first introduced by Peter Senge, is a good way of assessing the future. Garland, in his book, suggests conducting an analysis by considering current competitors, economic trends, politics, the environment, regulators and government agencies, community stakeholders and disruptive technologies. He evaluates the future of chocolate bars as an example. It contains no computer chips, nor does it require extensive research and development. It should be easy to forecast the future of chocolate. He analyzes factors in society, technology, economics, ecology and politics, and lists the topics and chooses the relevant issues. In the society column, he lists the public health aspect as there is an epidemic of childhood obesity. In the technology column, he says there isn’t necessarily a lot that will change the future of chocolate itself, but notes that packaging technology might change. For example, the ordinary foil wrapper will change. Chocolate bars are affordable, but the main ingredient of chocolate is cocoa is only available in certain countries of the world, which means supply and currency fluctuations might influence the future of chocolate. In terms of ecology, Garland says the cultivation of cocoa might be influenced by global warming. We can use existing information to predict the future of any product.
Garland provides tools to his readers to master the future. Systems thinking provides a framework to understand the different dimensions of the future. Analyzing trends is very important to understanding the picture of tomorrow. The problem is telling which trends are a real trend and which are just media hypes. There are many predictions that have already been made by experts, but we have to find the reliable and trustworthy forecasts. More important than having knowledge of the future is what we will do based on such knowledge. We have to decide what the strategic implications of the future are.
Scenario generation is another tool to study the future using information gathered by other means. Sharing insights and coming up with possible scenarios about the future with colleagues is also very important as it is difficult to prepare your business for the future alone.
“Future, Inc.” is a thought provoking book to think about your business’s own future.
