The Syrian resolution aimed at a peaceful transition, calling on President Bashar al-Assad to transfer his powers to his deputy and form a transitional national government. It included no provision on military intervention. It was a summary of the calls that have been made by Turkey and the Arab League since August of last year.
The Assad regime rejected all of these calls. At times, it gave the impression that it was interested in reform and dialogue with the opposition. It did not take long to see that the regime was simply buying time and was neither serious nor sincere about reforms or peaceful transition. Instead, it took a false comfort in the delicate position and strategic location of Syria. This is a false comfort because everybody and also the regime know that those who support the regime in Damascus have their own agenda.
The Russian attempt to mediate between the regime and the opposition, made formal and public by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Damascus on Feb. 7, will come to naught. The Russians may sincerely believe that they can convince President Assad to stop the bloodshed and start a process of national dialogue. But judging by its actions so far, the regime is unlikely to change course at this point and take substantial steps, which will have to include the stepping down of Assad and his close associates.
Instead, Damascus wants to have a prolonged war and maintain the “delicate” position it has at the moment. The “delicate” position is no secret: With Chinese and Russian support at the UNSC on the one hand and the support of the Iranian and Iraqi governments on the other, it has calculated to wear down the opposition, both national and international, to consolidate its military prowess and intelligence capability and to convince its support base that the regime is strong and will not be toppled.
The regime has made promises to the Syrian people before and to Turkey and the Arab league and kept none of them. It will not be any different with the Russian initiative. The regime in Damascus thrives on the regional balance of power with global players included. This “instrumental” value for Syria will not last for too long. That is why the regime will try everything to regionalize the regime crisis in Syria and make it a power struggle between different alliances in the Middle East and the world and secure a comfort zone for itself in the mix.
Neither a neo-imperialist intervention nor the continuation of the current dictatorship is a viable option in Syria. The challenge for all stakeholders is to find a third way that will ensure the rebuilding of Syria as a democratic, pluralist and prosperous country freed from dictatorship, nepotism, corruption and apathy. Here the Syrian opposition, both inside and outside the country, carries the greater burden. It is they who are the rightful owners of the Syrian revolution.
But they have limited resources and are just beginning to mature as an opposition. Given the fact that Syrians never had a chance to organize as a legal political opposition in the past, it is only natural that they face problems. At any rate, they will continue to be the key actors of the process of change in Syria. The next stage in Syria will be to further empower the Syrian opposition.
After the veto at the UNSC, Turkey will continue to work with the Arab League, members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the EU countries and the US. As Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced on Feb. 7, Turkey will launch a new initiative to raise the awareness and support of the international community on Syria and deepen the political, diplomatic and economic isolation of the regime in Damascus. The new round of consultations and coordination will take a concrete form in the next few weeks.
