According to the Turkish Exporters Union (TIM) data, exports rose by 32.4 percent to US$47.9 billion in 2003 when compared to the previous year. Above and beyond expectations, this figure is a new record - and this is not just an ordinary record registered by comparing old and new data of the growing economy. A real growth is the subject of the matter. A yearly increase had never exceeded US$5 billion. Now an increase approaching US$12 billion is the subject.
But, we have to wait for the State Institute of Statistics (DIE) to release the import figures...
Ten-month figures released previously showed that imports increased a little more than exports and this mostly stemmed from the import of investment goods. The export coverage of import ratio is at the 69 percent level, a 2-point decrease.
Turkish exports exceeded US$1 billion for the first time in 1973, surpassed US$5 billion in 1982, US$10 billion in 1987 and US$20 billion in 1995. Right now, we foresee a US$50-billion target. Most probably, this figure will exceed US$50 billion next year.
The share of industrial products in exports was 9 percent in 1923, 32.5 percent in 1973, and 36 percent in 1980, and this figure rapidly rose with the help of an export-led industrial development model launched during the era of [the late President Turgut] Ozal. A 79-percent share of industrial products in exports in 1990, rose to 84 percent in 2003. Agricultural and mining products are in the rear plan. Germany, the United States and Britain are the countries we export to the most. The textile, ready-to-wear clothing and automotive sectors take the lead in export goods. Turkey has proven with the products it sells that it is an industrialized country. Right at this point, something comes to mind. It is normal to break records when we compare ourselves with ourselves. All right, what then is our place in the world?
Honestly speaking, our share of total world exports is not that encouraging. Our exports do not even make up 1 percent of the world exports. US$48 billion is too meager a figure in total world exports amounting to over US$6 trillion. However, with the latest increase, our share of total world exports will probably exceed the 0.7-percent level. And this is a step in the right direction. For years, Turkey's share of overall world exports had been hovering around 0.4 and 0.6 percent.
A 70-percent level export/import coverage ratio is not a big issue, however, it could not have been more. Our exports and imports have not balanced for a very long time. The last time we balanced our checkbook was during the World War II era. This means we have run a trade deficit since 1946. It should not be forgotten that for [then- Prime Minister Suleyman Demirel to utter the famous saying, 'Turkey in need of 70 cents,' was as a result of the export coverage of import ratio decreasing to 30 percent in the 1970s.
For this export leap to be realized in 2003, State Minister Responsible for Foreign Trade Kursad Tuzmen, TIM administrators, industrialists and exporters have all played very important roles. Although, exporters are pleased with this increase, they are complaining because they failed to earn optimal profits.The main reason is the low exchange rate.
The rest of this increase aptitude is closely related to structural reforms and growth. Hence, structural reforms in the economic field in 2004 would also be the determining factor for exports as well. To surmount the difficulties of the last 22 years, Turkey could increase its exports 10-fold by 2023, the 100th anniversarary of the Republic, and that would surpass the US$500-billion target which Tuzmen mentioned. Let there be an enthusiastic and determined endeavor. That will do!
January 3, 2004
