Iran should not be confused with Iraq. This is because Iraq is a country that was created later, whereas Iran is country based on state traditions for thousands of years. Moreover, in the last few years, Iran has emerged stronger than ever as a result of the developments in the region. Washington-based analyses of the Islamic world contain many major mistakes. It was thought that Sunnis, who constitute the majority in the Islamic world, were nourishing terror. It was assumed that every “scholar” in the Sunni world, “without a caliph,” was issuing different fatwas (religious edicts). Pointing to al-Qaeda and the Taliban as examples, conclusions were being made. According to these analyses, reverence for the clergy in Shiism and the clergymen themselves facilitated the establishment of contacts with Shiites and understanding them better. This conclusion made in a haste was full of historical mistakes and logical loopholes. For this reason, the answer today to the question, “Who benefits most from the war in Iraq?” always points to Iran. Until recently, the West that used to have gooseflesh whenever the word “Wahabi” was mentioned, now has the same concerns about the spread and dominance of Shiism.
In the days ahead, the Iran-US tension might escalate. But this turning into a war does not seem likely. However, the show of force by both sides might test the limits of endurance. Such policies might reach the level of violence, involuntarily; they might make a U-turn impossible. An economic and political siege might put Iran into a difficult position; in such a conjuncture, the stance that will adopted by“neighboring countries” will be of paramount importance. The Bush administration’s attitude, “you are either with me or with the enemy,” might drag the region into a period of uncertainty. Even if international support is maintained, it is not known to what extent people in the country might support alliances made up of Western countries and to what extent the governments will be influenced by public reactions.
I don’t know whether or not you are aware of this, however, the West and America seem compelled to mellow when developments that might make them lose in the Islamic world are at issue; and somehow, they cannot take the initiative to make amends. Winning considerable points with its attitude in Bosnia and Kosovo, the United States that was regarded by Muslim intellects as a model for democracy and respect for beliefs, entered a difficult period due to homeland security crisis that emerged in the aftermath of the September 11. It is well known that extremist groups are very small and marginal. But the majority in the Islamic world have been hurt by the expression “Islamic terror” and have been made to pay a price. Whereas terrorist actions committed in the name of Islam could be prevented by the Muslim majority who interpret the Qur’an and Sunnah correctly. More so, every danger of war in the Middle East is seen as part of an occupation plot and new worries arise.
In spite of all this, the probability of war is low. This is because war will not bring any benefits to the US, nor would it be possible for this war to end in a short period of time. Iran knows this, hence, it is preparing for war; moreover, it continues to solicit sympathy by reflecting an image that it wants war. The Iranians know very well that such a war will not benefit them nor the Islamic world. In any case, a stable and strong Turkey is needed, there is no doubt about it. I wish Turkish politicians and intellects see this reality.
April 13, 2006
