Was it a victory for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu -- the party’s struggling leader? One has to be careful about the analysis; there is no room for exaggerated joy or pessimism. It is fair to say he rode the storm successfully, exposing and alienating his rivals of the old guard, and was able to pass a critical threshold to carry out the change that as a social demand keeps the party under severe pressure.
At the outset, it looked like a series of parallel meetings on the party statute. But, everyone knew it was neither about that nor on the direction of the party’s politics. It was decisively about whether or not Önder Sav, the party’s age-old “polite bureau” figure -- a staunch Kemalist -- and Deniz Baykal, the former chairman who had to go because of a sex tape scandal -- were capable of staging a comeback. They have failed: Sav is on his way out, while Baykal’s future is more uncertain than ever. With them, a large bulk of the CHP nomenklatura, the ancient elite that kept the party on an ideological leash, will have to march out.
That is, if Kılıçdaroğlu now uses his historical chance to conduct a thorough cleansing when the CHP once more gathers its delegates in June -- that time in an “ordinary” congress, which includes the election of a party chair. If ever, only then we will be able to speak about a victory.
Skeptics may argue otherwise, but the weekend’s parallel congresses ended in small, but important signs for the future. The statute was amended to replace the old objective, which was to emphasize protecting the unitary nature of Turkey and its security, with a new one that underlines human rights, the rule of law and pluralist democracy. It will redistribute central power to the provinces by reducing the “omnipotence” of the Ankara headquarters considerably so that the periphery will have a more powerful say. According to the new statute, there will be quotas with regard to representation in the party echelons of 33 percent for women and 10 percent for youth.
As importantly, the defeat of Sav-Baykal cliques means that Kılıçdaroğlu will be much more at ease to form his team, both in Ankara and elsewhere. If he manages to pass the test in June, his leadership will have no more excuses to set sail as an alternative in Turkish politics.
At the moment, there are problems. They are not small ones. Ever since he was elected as party chair in May 2010, Kılıçdaroğlu has had to swim in troubled waters. In order to survive he kept busy with minor issues, and whenever some real challenges surfaced, he either zigzagged or swept them under the carpet. In politics, he disappointed much more than satisfied. He spent his nearly two years with a performance that did not impress. He was believed to have a leadership profile, and it still remains to be seen whether he has the leadership skills to deliver results. He failed to make a difference about the Kurdish issue and displayed serious flaws on issues concerning facing the CHP’s role in Turkey’s dark past (such as the genocidal acts in Dersim in the 1930s). This and many other topics led to a decline in the party’s votes by more than five percentage points.
After the threshold, the moment of truth approaches. The ongoing economic, social and political transformation of Turkey -- from within -- set free powerful dynamics that have been keeping immense pressure on three segments: The judiciary, the media and the CHP. Certainly, as a key element in the normalization, the CHP is -- through tough lessons -- made aware of the necessity of change. It has been repeatedly given a choice to make: It will either have to proceed toward redefining itself as a “true” social democratic party, or remain as it is, as the Kemalist elite’s club.
It has been the CHP’s homework ever since the EU process became serious, but it has remained resistant to change. It preferred to invest its hopes on an undemocratic shift of power with the help of its ancient allies -- the army and the judiciary. But, those days are gone. The CHP is now on its own, to prove (or not) to be a genuine political movement, experiencing all the democracy it can get within itself.
“Turkey needs, we need a fine opposition” said [Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan yesterday. Nobody, I believe, would disagree with that. But, as in historic moments (think of Labor in Britain, or Socialists in Spain), a leader has to make radical choices, take harsh chances, face risks. Nobody knows yet whether Kılıçdaroğlu will take that road. The weekend made people aware of a silver lining only. Let us wait until June to be more certain.
