Social progress is more enduringly attained by democratic participation rather than authoritarian mobilization. Global stability can be promoted only by larger-scale cooperation, not through imperial domination. (The National Interest, January-February 2012)
I find Professor Brzezinski's observations highly helpful in understanding the world in the wake of the Arab Awakening, which can be said to have changed the context of international politics as radically as the end of the Cold War. It is clear that the current instabilities are mostly the consequence of the Arab peoples' rebellions in pursuit of freedom and democracy. They have learned through experience that social progress cannot be achieved under authoritarian regimes but by democratic participation. The instabilities that ensue from the Arab awakening can be dealt with not by any single imperial, hegemonic power but by large-scale, international cooperation. This was observed in Libya last year and is likely to be seen in Syria this year.
It has already become clear that the people's revolution in Syria will involve a tougher struggle than the one fought in Libya. Conditions in Syria are neither like those in Tunisia and Egypt, nor Libya. The armed forces in Tunisia and Egypt did not side with the autocratic regimes, while in the latter they were divided from the outset. In Syria, however, the armed forces stand mostly on the side of the Baath dictatorship. The regime is supported not only by its mainstay, the Alawite-majority bureaucracy, but also by Sunni business groups and at least some of the non-Muslim minorities. Moreover, it has strong international allies, primarily in Russia and Iran. As long as its domestic allies and Russian friends are not convinced that their interests or rights will be secured in its aftermath, the autocratic regime may endure much longer than expected. The point on which most outsiders seem to agree is that foreign military intervention -- similar to the one in Iraq or Libya -- aimed at toppling the regime risks setting the entire region on fire.
Under such circumstances, to bring an end to the repressive Syrian regime -- which has killed up to 7,000 people since the beginning of protests last March -- both the Syrian people who demand freedom and its friends need to wage a patient and sustained struggle to dissolve the internal and external alliances the regime rests on. This strategy may worry consciences, but appears to be the only rational course to pursue.
What can Turkey -- the people of which surely feel deep sympathy for Syrians and has the greatest interest in the establishment of democratic stability in the neighboring country -- do to help? It can and must continue to push for and lead initiatives towards the broadest possible international cooperation aimed at stopping the killing and democratizing the regime in Syria. Ankara should make every possible effort to convince Moscow to contribute. It can work to extend humanitarian aid to the afflicted people in Syria and help the country to democratize in all other possible ways. It is, however, imperative that it stays away from involvement in any unilateral or multilateral military intervention, which is most likely to lead not only to civil war in Syria but to region-wide, multilateral armed conflict.
There are those who, like Ann-Marie Slaughter, a former director of policy planning at the US State Department, suggest that Turkey, if necessary, “should contemplate sending in ground troops, with extensive logistical and intelligence support from NATO” together with Arab League states. (“Turkey's Test,” Feb. 13) Involvement in a military confrontation in Syria would inevitably compromise hard won economic and political stability in Turkey, leading possibly to a revival of the military's political role and further escalation of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)-led armed insurgency. Relations with Russia and Iran, which are major suppliers of energy and important markets for Turkish goods, would certainly be adversely affected.
Ankara, before anything else, should not for a moment forget that progress in the spheres of economic growth, democratization and international prestige under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government over the last 10 years has been achieved thanks to Turkey staying away from involvement in the US invasion of Iraq.
