The Russian veto of a UN Security Council Resolution earlier this month has infuriated the international community. The US and EU as well as Turkey, which has been carrying out quiet diplomacy with the Kremlin, have been urging Moscow to join the international consensus so as to allow the Security Council to act as well as calling for Russia to stop selling arms to the Syrian government. So far this plea has fallen on death ears, as Russia continues to pursue a policy of protecting its own interests. Even after the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Syria where he witnessed death and destruction, including of children, Moscow still stands behind Assad. Moreover, history shows that Russia has a track record of playing the anti-West card during elections campaigns, which is the case today.
Domestically, Russian Prime Minister and presidential candidate Vladimir Putin is feeling the heat in the run up to the March 4 presidential elections. Over the last few months, following fraudulent Dec. 4 parliamentary elections, hundreds of thousands of Russians have taken to the streets to protest against Putin. This has been a serious blow to his ego. Russians are fed up with “Putinism.” They want a more democratic, law-abiding and less corrupt country. However, I doubt Putin is ready to pack his suitcase yet. Still a youngish man at 60 years old, he clearly believes he has many years left in politics and is determined to stay one way or another.
While the West, including a recent resolution by the European Parliament, has called on Russia to clean up its act and hold presidential elections that are up to international standards, this seems unlikely. Baring opposition candidates such as liberal Grigory Yavlisnski from standing has already undermined political competition and pluralism. Furthermore, a recent bill submitted to the Duma by President Medvedev, which would ban political parties from putting nationally known figures on regional parliamentary elections while increasing the number of electoral districts from 80 to 225, has been viewed as something that stands to benefit the ruling United Russia Party of Putin.
In an effort to win back some hearts and minds, the Kremlin has launched a new campaign. It comprises a series of videos (which can be seen on YouTube as “vote4Putin”) starring a whole range of famous Russian celebrities. These folks explain why it is in the interests of Russians to vote for Putin. Made to appeal to all ages, this group of celebrities includes rappers, sports stars, singers and actors. They all say what a marvelous leader Putin has been, how much he has done for charity and for the country, bringing Russia back from the black days at the end of the Yeltsin rule: teaching oligarchs a lesson, getting the economy back on track and putting Russia back on the world stage. The reasons they give for voting for Putin include “Putin brings stability,” “Putin is respected by other global powers, including the US” and “Putin can guarantee your security.” They play on fears that without Putin, Russia will crumble and return to the instability of the past. Unfortunately for Putin, the campaign has already become surrounded by scandal, with rumors that some of those that took part, including children’s philanthropist Chulpan Khamatova, were forced to do it. Putin also recently unveiled his plan on social policy, focusing on how Russia will boost its dwindling population amid a demographic crisis that threatens to turn the country into “void space.” Among the measures Putin proposed was improving financial and living conditions to encourage Russians who have moved away to return and providing better support for families with many children.
While much of this is probably too little too late, Putin does have in his favor the fact that Russia -- not surprisingly -- does not have a strong opposition force. And what there is continues be crushed. Organizers of a Feb. 26 opposition rally called “Farewell to Putin’s Political Winter” reported that their application to hold the event on Ploshchad Revolyutsii next to the Kremlin was rejected by city hall for no good reason. Furthermore, there is not one clear leader or a clear structure or strategy. Historically, most successful revolutions are those that are almost invariably associated with a clear, charismatic leader.
While most people predict that Putin will win, the question of what will happen if he does so in a particularly fraudulent manner remains. How will ordinary Russian react? In light of recent events it is clear they will not simply accept it. Will the Russian security forces use violence? How far will Putin go? And, finally, what will be the reaction of the West? The next few months are set to be very interesting indeed.
