Furthermore, pro-government forces try to deny the crisis and present it as if everything is as usual. Yet there is nothing usual in Ankara. First, the documents that are leaked to the media include scandalous information that could deeply affect people. In Turkey no one could accept that a government institution, MİT, agrees with the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] to leave the Kurdish territory to the PKK to establish a semi-autonomous system in that region. Thus, the AKP government and the media that supports it know this fact and try to cover the damage tirelessly; however, it is not an issue that can be covered up by a media campaign.
A political observer, who is close to the AKP, told me today that the AKP -- in order to save a tree, meaning its bureaucrat, Hakan Fidan -- burned down the whole forest. This crisis deeply affected people, and now people are trying to understand what is going on, but they smell something fishy.
More importantly, all this information has revealed that MİT is practically controlling the KCK network; thus, any terror incident in this country could easily be associated with the government. From now on, the AKP government -- in order to prove that it doesn't have anything to do with the terror activities -- has to choose between two options.
First, resume negotiations with the PKK, and in return, ask the PKK to stop its terror campaign. Yet to resume negotiations, the AKP should give the PKK what it wants. The PKK would insist on an open dialog; however, the government cannot afford to begin an open dialog with the PKK. Second, once the government resumes the dialog with the PKK, people would automatically think of the former dialog period and consider the government as a traitor not a peacemaker.
The second option is to intensify its military campaign against the PKK and hit it hard. This is the most likely scenario at this time because it works, and the AKP government needs heavy-handed policies against the PKK to clean the mud that has stuck to its policies.
At the societal level, if the government does not find a channel with which to keep in touch with its conservative and nationalist constituents this incident could further deepen because in Turkey politics is shaped in cafés and religious networks. This incident has made it clear that some AKP constituents have lost faith in their party, and they feel disappointed and betrayed.
In the short term because of such disengagement from the AKP, we could see some discord in the country; in the long term, if the AKP does not find a way to negotiate with its supporters, it could lead to a significant decrease in AKP votes.
