a) The Iranian military budget is less than those of other countries in the region.
b) Its military doctrine was formulated to slow down a potential occupation and to push for a resolution.
c) Iran has power that goes beyond its national borders.
d) The nuclear program is a central part of the deterrence strategy.
Still, Iran may be attacked because the US needs a concrete enemy, in line with Huntington’s “construction of identity” theory. In addition, as a state which prioritizes security, Israel is acting out of fear. For this reason, as noted by Martin van Creveld, an Israeli military historian, “The world may witness the occupation of Iran, just as it had witnessed the previous invasion of Iraq, with no plausible reason.” The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reports that Iran will fail to produce nuclear weapons in 2012. Nuclear expert David Albright, unlike the US and its allies, suggests the Iranian nuclear program does not pose any threat (Milat, Jan. 27, 2012). Retired British diplomat Jeremy Greenstock says: “Even though Israel holds differently, I think that the Iranian ‘regional threat’ image has been greatly exaggerated and despite threats suggesting that it would use it against Israel, it would not use its military power outside its borders.” Another reality that Greenstock refers to is that American forces are in Iraq, Qatar and Afghanistan and that they have close ties with Turkey. As a result of this situation, Iran is trying to develop a new foreign policy (Yeni Şafak, Nov. 8, 2011).
The US and Israel are not the only threats for Iran; talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel are no longer a secret. In July 2010, in the aftermath of the rumors that Israeli warplanes would use Saudi airspace for a potential attack against Iran, media reports were published suggesting that Meir Dagan, Chair of the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, secretly paid a visit to Saudi Arabia.
According to Mark Fitzpatrick, president of London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Iranian nuclear program is the third most important global strategic issue after North Korea and Pakistan, because Iran does not have nuclear weapons yet. (Hürriyet Daily News, Nov. 18, 2011).
In fact, the US and Israel -- with the support of the EU, of course -- have already started a war against Iran. Maybe a violent conflict will follow soon; however, the assassinations, explosions, computer viruses, psychological warfare and the media’s anti-regime propaganda indicate that the war has already begun. Former speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich said on CBS in November 2011 that the Iranian nuclear program could be stopped by assassinations against Iranian scientists. Reports indicate that he was nominated as Republican candidate because of this recommendation (Radikal daily, Jan. 22, 2012).
In sum, Iran is in essence preoccupied with its own national security; however, Western and pro-Western media outlets are spreading propaganda -- that Iran poses an imminent threat to Israel, Washington and London and that it is ready to strike their cities in the near future -- to intimidate the Western public.
Kazakhstan’s President Sultan Nazarbayev says that the international system has been following double standards vis-à-vis Iran and that the exaggerated Iranian threat was not convincing. But, of course, what is more striking are remarks by Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak: “Some argue that Israel has nuclear weapons. If I were Iran, I would have developed nuclear arms as well.” According to Ehud Barak, the problem is not Iran alone, it is also that the Islamic countries, including Turkey, are not eligible to possess nuclear arms: “The world could tolerate a nuclear America, but imagine that Iran has nuclear weapons; in that case, the Saudis would also want to have this capability. And in such a case, you cannot prevent Turkey from developing nuclear weapons. And even the Egyptian government may want that in the future. This will start a nuclear race between irresponsible actors. This is fairly dangerous.” (Milat daily, Nov. 18, 2011).
