Rather, the issue at stake is linked to who would run the country should the governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) ever -- in 2019 or 2023, that is -- lose its majority in Parliament. One possible answer: the AK Party!
Late in January and according to the Chatham House Rule (comments not attributable to any organization or individual) upon the occasion of meeting one of Turkey’s decision makers we discussed that if one day in the future the currently ruling AK Party would no longer be able to win a large enough majority, would in that case a coalition government once more become an option? Actually, taking into account the current, somewhat blurred policy output of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in Britain, I would refer to it as an unfortunate necessity rather than a welcome option, yet scenario analysts are nevertheless allowed to think about it.
So who could it be? The Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) or independents nominated by and after the 2011 elections joining the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) parliamentary group?
From what I hear, one such possibility could be that instead of opting for a German-type grand coalition, Turkey’s smaller opposition party -- if ever, if any -- that is, the MHP could, under certain conditions, become an ally (or ‘tolerating’ ally) for the ruling AK Party. Yes, the MHP was reluctantly pro-freedom of choice position with regard to the headscarf ban at universities. This debate was a first indication of this as of yet not independently verifiable, potentially new trend. So has the MHP become the new trendsetter for and of engaging in reform-oriented policies? Not really, I daresay! A look at this week’s by-law debate and ensuing chaos on the floor of Turkey’s Parliament underlines this “not really” assumption.
Nevertheless, reflecting on this exchange of views I would not be surprised if a moderate, center-right AK Party from time to time extends a hand to the MHP, which is nationalistic, yet conservative, all the same. In turn and in order to continue making it past the 10 percent electoral threshold the MHP might as well accept that hand and become somewhat more liberal, attract one or two more percentage points in votes and, what’s more, the AK Party might find an on-off political ally in the MHP to fend off the danger of the CHP coming back to power by means of an absolute majority (from today’s perspective and at least for another term or two an entirely impossible scenario). Actually, this on-off co-op might result in the MHP fishing for votes in CHP waters, and not in those of the AK Party.
The MHP will be aware that a CHP-MHP tandem would, at least in the short term, not garner enough votes. If electoral support for the AK Party over time declines as part of a logic swing of the pendulum of power, an AKP-MHP coalition (or tolerating of a minority government) could see the AK Party dominate Turkish politics at least for another four years after the general elections in 2019, leading up to the centennial celebrations, and at the same time bring the MHP into a power-sharing position, too, instead of (only) having to fight for its political survival. Food for political thought, so to speak.
What the comments I have incorporated into this column signify are two things. First, assuming that the current Turkish prime minister will become the country’s first directly elected president and that an equally “electable” candidate fills his seat as future prime minister, a continuation of the AK Party’s success story is a very likely scenario.
Second, one is forgiven for neglecting what is supposed to be the country’s major opposition party, the CHP. Neglect not because I want to, but because I continue to be totally confused about its manifesto, direction, policy making seriousness and lack of charismatic alternatives to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Abdullah Gül.
Opposition by obstruction does not catapult a party into power; yet, I shall continue to listen to other experts including those from the CHP, too.
For now the only correct set of numbers is 49-25-13-6 (rounded down, not up), the result of Turkey’s last general elections. Happy number crunching.
