In May 2012, Armenia will hold important parliamentary elections. Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan has promised to “spare no effort” to ensure that the election is free and fair. The last elections held in Armenia were memorable for all the wrong reasons. Some four years ago, disputed presidential elections led to mass protests that ended in violence. A security crackdown left 10 people dead, while hundreds of others were injured and/or arrested. While originally deemed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) to be “mostly in line” with OSCE standards, the elections were later seen to be marred by credible claims of ballot stuffing, intimidation of poll workers and proxies, vote buying and other irregularities. It was an event that shamed the country, and something Armenia’s leadership is keen to demonstrate is a thing of the past.
In 2011, Armenia seemed to reach a turning point. Fed up with dismal socioeconomic conditions, corruption and poor governance and democratic standards, thousands of people rallied behind Armenia’s opposition, taking to the streets, demanding change. Armenia’s leadership reacted. Political prisoners were released, and dialogue was launched with the opposition. Indeed, government concessions paved the way for dialogue of an extent not yet witnessed in either of the other two South Caucasus states. It included the release of political prisoners and a renewed criminal investigation into the 2008 post-election unrest. These efforts were welcomed by the West, including the EU. President Sarksyan now says that through ongoing dialogue with the main opposition Armenian National Congress (HAK), the two are learning to respect and tolerate each other.
The May parliamentary elections will act as something of a litmus test for democracy, with issues such as party funding, electoral governance and voter registration being as important as the vote itself, with CCTV reportedly going to be widely used. It is clearly in Sarksyan’s own interest to deliver clean elections. With his mandate due to end in 2013, improving democratic standards and freedoms while promoting dialogue may offer him a better chance of being reelected in 2013. Although he has not yet submitted his candidature, it is widely expected.
The election will also act as a key test to judge how the EU’s policy for this part of the world, principally the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and Eastern Partnership (EaP), is working. Armenia signed an ENP Action Plan some five years ago, committing itself to carrying out a wide range of comprehensive political and economic reforms. More recently, Armenia has engaged seriously in its efforts with the EU for the completion of an Association Agreement, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and visa facilitation. With the EU’s new “more for more” approach, the more progress Armenia makes, the further the EU will go. Those working on Armenia in the EU’s External Action Service report that Armenia is making steady and consistent progress, which is a positive sign. But clearly, some problems still remain. The European Commission’s 2011 ENP Country Report states that Armenia needs to further improve the rule of law, and corruption remains a big problem; the independence of the judiciary is still far from guaranteed, with economically powerful figures continuing to influence judges. Indeed, the judicial system as a whole is still recovering from underdevelopment and corruption, which are legacies of the Soviet era.
Improving freedom of speech and the media is also crucial. Media watchdog Reporters without Borders’ (RWB) annual report on press freedom for 2011-2012 states, as compared to 2010, Armenia improved its position by 24 points, enjoying the 77th position. This represents a return to the level of press freedom enjoyed prior to the 2008 elections. Indeed, Armenia comes out as the regional leader, with Georgia in 104th place, Azerbaijan at 162, and Turkey at 148.
Nevertheless, there is still much room for improvement. The media continues to face judicial harassment, with self-regulation a major challenge. The recent arrest of journalist Hayk Gevorgyan is an example. Mr. Gevorgyan was arrested on Feb. 3 and held in detention, accused of running someone over. However, after strong protest claiming his arrest was political motivated, he was released on bail.
However, while Armenia clearly faces many challenges that will be difficult to overcome, it would seem the country is heading in the right direction. But as the saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and this pudding will certainly be the May elections.
