Today, I am going to try to analyze the findings of this survey on public support for foreign policy and political parties. The findings on foreign policy performance show that the Turkish people find the foreign policy pursued by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government successful, with 71 percent of participants confirming that the AKP’s foreign policy was successful, whereas 25 percent said it was unsuccessful or extremely unsuccessful. Compared to the findings two years ago, the current survey confirms that the number of those who find the government’s foreign policy successful has risen by 17 percent. It appears that the Turkish people are pleased with the external influence of their country and that they are not worried about the adoption of a more aggressive foreign policy and abandonment of the “zero problems with neighbors” policy.
The Turkish people approve the move from a passive stance in foreign policy to a proactive political style. Aware that the economy is the driving force behind growth, the participants (69 percent) underline that they endorse the AKP government’s economic policies implemented in 2011, while 27 percent of respondents think that economic policies were not successful. The growing national confidence did not push the Turkish people away from the EU membership bid; on the contrary, this state of confidence made the people believe that it was actually their right to be part of the EU. Despite ongoing problems with the EU, 51 percent of the people still favor Turkey’s EU membership. In response to a question asking which party they would prefer if there was an election now (before the redistribution of the 9 percent undecided and protest votes), 51.8 percent picked the AKP, 21 percent the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and 11.4 percent the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). In response to a question asking which party they picked on June 12 elections, 50.3 percent pointed to the AKP, 24.1 to the CHP and 12.6 to the MHP. The results confirm that the AKP votes rose by 1.5 percent whereas the CHP votes declined by 3.1 and the MHP votes by 1.2 percent. The AKP, which has increased its popular support while in office, has turned into a hegemonic party.
The findings reveal that the opposition is not influential or effective. Opposition parties should offset the extremes of political administrations or take advantage of their mistakes. Only by behaving this way will they be able to correct the arbitrary choices and actions of the ruling parties. Unfortunately, today this is not the case in Turkey. It could be argued that the CHP has lost the popular support that it secured after the arrival of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as the party leader. It is also obvious that the MHP votes, even though they did not decline significantly, have not gone up. The party leader that the people trust and like most (55.5 percent) is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, followed by Kılıçdaroğlu (9.8 percent) and Devlet Bahçeli (5.3 percent). In the category of the most liked politician or statesman, Erdoğan received the vote of 33 percent of the respondents, followed by President Abdullah Gül (10 percent), Kılıçdaroğlu (3.8 percent), Süleyman Demirel (2.9 percent) and Bahçeli (2.1 percent), while 16.5 percent of respondents do not like any politician. These findings show that there is a difference between service as party chairman and acting as a real leader. A leader who would mobilize the people and attract the attention and support of the majority is not yet on the horizon. It appears that Turkey will go on in 2012 with a prime minister the people have faith in. We will see if there will be any significant and radical changes in this outlook in 2012.
