“We wake up with one or two huge stories and by the evening they are buried in the memory by many others,” commented a colleague the other day.
The last two days have offered such an example. An indictment was sent to a court, accusing two generals -- architects of the coup in September 1980 -- with the very article that they then used -- or, rather, abused -- against a massive amount of people from all sections of society: overthrowing the order by force.
Kenan Evren, leader of the 94-year junta, and Tahsin Şahinkaya, then-head of the air force, will face trial, if the court’s judges find the indictment in accordance with law. All those who fell victim to the horror of those times, right or left, have waited to see the two men listening to charges against them and be accountable for the crimes against humanity they are linked with. If this so happens, it will be the first time in history that “a coup” in its entirety -- meaning its entire cast -- will be on trial.
Yesterday, another “first” happened. Former Chief of General Staff İlker Başbuğ was interrogated as a “suspect” in the “anti-government websites” case, after his subordinates in previous court hearings pointed him out as being the decision maker of the highest level in the propaganda campaign. If Başbuğ admits he gave the “go ahead” for the setting up of the websites he could face arrest and be put on trial.
In another development, former Minister of Justice Seyfi Oktay was charged as a prime suspect in the ongoing Ergenekon case, accused of meddling and trying to use “his contacts” within the judiciary to influence the outcome of the Ergenekon trial.
Add to this the remarkable silence, confusion and anger over the Uludere incident, which left 35 unarmed Kurds dead in a bombing, and try making sense of the high-voltage tension in Ankara. Is everything related? In such cases, our previous experience tells us that they may be. Domestic politics have sent shockwaves across institutions, which is visible with the extraordinary meetings being held between President Abdullah Gül, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, the top brass and National Intelligence.
We are once more in the midst of a developing story, which requires caution and to not make hasty judgments. The feeling is that tectonic shifts are taking place in the capital, most probably as a result of the government asserting its power even further. Power play has entered a new phase, and on some key issues, it would be fair to claim, the government is standing before a watershed. These issues include the pressure to bring clarity on what caused the disaster in Uludere and why, what sort of road map on Kurdish reform is to be taken, the stand to be taken regarding the Constitution, issues related to freedom of speech and how to consolidate cohesive intelligence gathering in the fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
The immediate future will show us that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government will continue to be assertive once the major policies are crystallized. It is a tightrope walk nevertheless. Erdoğan may have decided to wait until the inquiries into Uludere are clear before issuing an apology, but the more time passes, the less value such an apology will have. He has -- once more -- wrongly chosen to get into a fight with newspapers and journalists, but no matter what, the Uludere incident will not go away. Yet, from the apparent turmoil in Ankara, the over-the-top confidence of the prime minister has emerged. He has reached a point -- so long desired by him -- that almost every issue has an answer between his lips.
He now has a more solid ground, if he truly thinks so. The solid ground has three elements: almost perfect relations with the Obama administration, his political assessment that the AK Party has now enough control in key posts in Ankara and, most strikingly, the latest polls by ANAR and the Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE) that show popular support close to 50 percent. ANAR’s poll place the AK Party at 53.7 percent, while the SDE’s indicates 53.2 percent. Most of the issues highlighted in the two polls show an upward trend for Erdoğan. His government is seen overall as “successful” (59.7 percent). His apology for Dersim is approved by 41.2 percent of the population, while 28 percent think it was wrong. Most found the emergency response to Van to be satisfactory (66.4 percent). Roughly 62 percent think Erdoğan is right in his stand vis-a-vis the Kurdish Communities Union (KCK) operations. A total of 65.7 percent of those asked in the ANAR poll said they believe Turkey needs a new, civilian constitution.
Hence, the self-esteem and assertiveness. These two polls, however, do not point out a single path: They show a push towards for reforms (by the people), but also for security. The key point is how to combine these two. Uludere was a traumatic breaking point and in the coming weeks some slowing down may be expected in Ankara, to display whether a wise, delicate balance between “soft” and “hard” is able to be shaped.
