A regional Sunni-Shiite conflict that worries Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may be in the making. The region may be going headlong into a new upheaval.
What is obvious is that Syria and Iraq may lose their integrity in the near future. Developments imply that Kurds will seek full independence in both countries. While they are currently allied with Turkey, the Kurds of northern Iraq will inevitably seek to establish Kurdistan in the long run. The same goes for Syrian Kurds. Such a development may be perceived as a threat to the integrity of both of Turkey and Iran, but the country that can pursue smart policies may twist it to its advantage.
In this capacity, Turkey seems luckier. How so? First, in terms of historical relations with Kurds in the region. Second with regard to its progress in democratization. Third as regards US support.
One can hardly say that Washington’s every plan is being fulfilled, but we must assume that the US has certainly many plans geared toward the region. One of them will relate to a Turkish-Kurdish alliance that will comprise a Syrian and Iraqi Kurdistan.
With a semi-presidential system, Turkey may seek to establish a voluntary federation with Kurds in Iraq and Syria. Such a federation may be run by a powerful president based on the principle of democratic equality. Certain experts in Ankara have long been brainstorming about this idea.
Therefore the debates on Turkey’s new Constitution should be analyzed with one eye on regional developments. The debates about the term of the Turkish president, and who will become the prime minister if Erdoğan is elected president, should be viewed also from this perspective.
True, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is currently unable to draft a constitution on its own, but remarks from senior AK Party executives seem to imply that the ruling party will not have much difficulty doing this after all. AK Party Deputy Chairman Hüseyin Tanrıverdi’s statement, “Mr. Prime Minister should entertain more extensive powers when he is elected as President,” is best interpreted in this light.
We are headed for interesting times. Everyone has their own game plan and their own capabilities. Unexpected alliances may pop up in Parliament to create a broad consensus about the new Constitution.
The reason why the government is moving at a snail’s pace as regards the democratic initiative -- a government project launched two years ago to solve the problems with Kurds, by expanding the cultural rights of the Kurdish community -- may be that it is determined to build the new structure in an environment where the effects of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) are minimized.
What is being discussed behind closed doors in Ankara is vitally important. This also applies to discussions in Washington and Arbil.
